BlockBeats news, on December 21, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin stated in a post on Farcaster that prediction markets are a remedy for the crazy opinions on emotional topics, and used two screenshots as examples: Elon Musk previously posted that a civil war in the UK is 'inevitable,' while on the prediction market Polymarket, the question 'Will there be a civil war in the UK in 2024?' had only a 3% probability (Vitalik believes 3% is still too high, as some bettors raised the probability). Vitalik stated that many users on social media exaggerate by claiming 'something will definitely happen' to create panic or attract attention, but do not take responsibility for it; on the other hand, prediction markets involve real money bets, which tend to reflect true probabilities and can counter these 'crazy opinions.'
Vitalik then elaborated on his overall views on prediction markets: compared to social media (which creates panic without accountability) and mainstream media (which engages in clickbait), prediction markets have a stronger incentive for "truth-seeking." Telling the truth can lead to real rewards, while lying incurs significant economic penalties. After discovering exaggerated news, checking Polymarket revealed a very low probability, which can calm people down and, conversely, can also avoid false hopes. Prediction markets serve as an "antidote" to social media, providing a more rational and responsible way to aggregate public opinion.
