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Explosive situation! Trump appoints the new head of the Federal Reserve, four candidates face off in a life-and-death battle over interest rate cuts, will the cryptocurrency sector see dawn after 1.2 trillion evaporated? 一起聊聊财富密码！
The race for the Federal Reserve chair has entered the final countdown! After intensive meetings, Trump has locked in four major candidates, clearly stating that the 'new head must support significant interest rate cuts', with nominees to be revealed in a few weeks, this maneuver has directly ignited the global financial market, and the cryptocurrency sector is looking for key signals of policy shifts after a 1.2 trillion market cap evaporation.
The four candidates each have their backgrounds: the popular choice, Haskett (with a winning probability of 56%), as a former White House economic advisor, bluntly stated that the latest CPI is 'explosively good', if elected, is likely to ramp up easing, seen by analysts as a key variable for 'dollar bearish, cryptocurrency bullish'; former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh has a dovish stance, while current governor Waller has been praised by Trump as 'great', advocating for steady interest rate cuts; BlackRock executive Riedel will also undergo final interviews before the end of the year. Trump has set a tough target, aiming to reduce the current 3.5%-3.75% interest rate to below 1%, directly addressing the pain point of mortgage pressure.
However, behind the seemingly favorable outlook lies a hidden agenda: the November CPI year-on-year cooling data of 2.7% has been called into question by the New York Fed President who pointed out that it might be 'underestimated by 0.1%' due to technical factors, making the December data crucial; although the Chicago Fed President has stated it is 'encouraging', Waller emphasized that 'there is no need to rush into action', internal divisions within the Federal Reserve remain unresolved. CME data shows that the current probability of a rate cut in December is only 29.8%, with the market still cautiously observing.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency sector has already faced a 'bloodbath': Bitcoin has retraced over 30% from its October peak, with 220,000 people across the network forced to liquidate, 1.2 trillion in market value turned to dust, essentially betting on the fluctuations of rate cut expectations. Now that Trump is pushing for easing, if the new chair can indeed deliver significant rate cuts, the liquidity easing of the dollar will directly benefit non-interest-bearing assets, and cryptocurrencies may have a chance to break out of the turbulence.
On one side is Trump's 'order to cut rates', on the other is the hidden concerns of inflation data, which of the four candidates will ultimately prevail? Can significant rate cuts really bring Bitcoin back to the 120,000 high point?
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