The probability of a rate cut in January plummets to 22%! A senior Federal Reserve official releases a "hawkish bomb," again sending bearish signals to the market!
The recently released CME "Fed Watch" data dropped a bombshell: the market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January next year has crashed to only 22.1%! Will there still be a Christmas rally? 来社区聊聊
💥 Why the sudden turn? Two major bombs triggered it!
1. The "third-ranking official" released an ultimate hawkish statement: Federal Reserve key figure Williams suddenly warned: "Inflation may be underestimated!" The underlying message of this statement is: the data may be worse than it appears, and "higher rates will last longer" will be the only choice. This cold water directly doused the market's dreams of a rate cut.
2. The "power struggle" between the White House and the Federal Reserve: the market knows well that rate cuts are no longer purely economic decisions, but rather a secret game between the political pressure from the White House and the independence of the Federal Reserve. This behind-the-scenes struggle makes any prediction filled with uncertainties, intensifying unpredictability.
⚡ Current market status: a spring compressed to the limit!
The current market seems to be in a sideways trend, but in reality, it has entered a "tight mode." Both bulls and bears are holding their breath, waiting for two decisive moments: every word from Powell, as well as the upcoming key inflation and employment data.
Any clear signal from either side (dovish or hawkish) could cause this tightly compressed spring to release violently in the opposite direction, leading to a surge or a crash. This is not a calm before the storm; it is a suffocating calm before the tempest.
Remember, the most lucrative market conditions often arise from moments when market expectations are highly concentrated and then completely overturned. #美联储降息预期升温
And the concept of p u p p i e s surrounding Musk, transcending cycles.
