Who would have expected that the half event market would ultimately become a mass funeral for individual investors.

This is not an ordinary bear market, but a precise attack on faith itself.

When "HODL" turns into the most expensive faith tax

In 2021, Hold On for Dear Life was the holiest mantra in the world of cryptocurrencies — just hold on to the stocks, and time will give you the answer; by 2025, the same process became the most expensive fuel in the wealth destruction machine.

My friend who has a nine-figure fortune invested heavily last year in the leading PNUT company in user flow storytelling, believing that 'value discovery' would never be delayed. The result? He did not receive institutional sponsorship, and liquidity completely dried up — down 90% from its peak, which is more thrilling than a roller coaster.

This is not just a problem of shrinking accounts, but a feeling of emptiness after a systemic perception shift. When you do everything right, yet lose devastatingly, what does the market really reward?

The old map does not reach new lands: We are still playing the game of 2025 with a 2017 mindset

The fundamental logic of this bull market has changed, but most people have not understood the text:

The past: The central bank pumped massive amounts, raising all ships, even poor cryptocurrencies could tell stories hundreds of times.

Now: Institutions are buying Bitcoin only via ETF, and individual investors are trading their pockets in the MEME casino.

Data does not lie: Bitcoin has crossed many mountains, while altcoins that were considered 'strong fundamentals' have fallen to their lowest levels since the FTX disaster. This is not a correction, but a systematic withdrawal of liquidity — the depth of trading on exchanges is dwindling, and medium-sized sell orders can cause a 10% drop.

Removing individual investors is not a conspiracy, but a positive plan.

The final game on the macro board: Is it good news or a smoke trap?

The current situation is filled with elements of magical realism:

The upside: The new US CPI index hits a low, inflation is under control, and expectations of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of next year are increasing.

The downside: The Bank of Japan raises interest rates but has not changed the weakness of the yen, and the market bets on a recession in America and a death spiral of Carry Trade.

The essence of this game is: Will the liquidity resulting from interest rate cuts flow into the cryptocurrency market?

The harsh reality is that institutional ETF channels are limited to Bitcoin only. Even with the Federal Reserve opening the floodgates, money will only flow through the most compliant and 'safe' routes to Bitcoin. As for altcoins trapped in deep investments, which lack ETF support or market protection, they will inevitably become corpses in the liquidity desert.

The first quarter of next year: An escape window, not a chance for wealth

To all the friends still hanging on to hope, here’s a dose of awareness: abandon the obsession with 'capital recovery', and consider the recovery of policies next year as an opportunity to save yourself.

If the expectations of interest rate cuts in the first quarter bring market recovery, remember this:

• This is not a call to pounce and add positions quickly

• This is the last chance to change your strategy and switch stocks

• It is an escape ladder to reduce risks

If liquidity does not flow, the old coins trapped in deep investments will remain moving corpses; markets do not introduce new coins, and old stories will not create new prices. Do not be that 'diamond hand' insisting on holding on until the end; the first step to survival is to acknowledge: some assets will never return.

What is more dangerous than financial loss?

Your experience has become a greater burden in this structural review.

This suppressed cycle does not evoke shame; the shame is to leave the market after shedding your torn faith. The market is unforgiving of stubbornness, but it rewards evolution. As long as your capital is still present, and you are willing to open your eyes to see the new picture, there is always a place for you in this field.

The harsh winter will eventually end, but spring belongs only to those who endured the winter and wore the new winter clothes.

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