Many people in the market are talking about predicting market end strategies, making small profits usually, but losing everything when encountering a black swan. There are also many discussing arbitrage between YES and NO; these are all seasoned players who haven't really run the strategies themselves.

1. End strategies cannot be mindlessly gambled all in; there are so many events in the market. A true end strategy is to diversify into the end. Moreover, event selection itself is not just about jumping in when seeing 99%; there is room for optimization in deciding whether to sweep the end strategy.

2. YES and NO themselves share the order book, meaning that with a dual taker strategy, it is impossible to buy YES + NO < 1. It is only possible to buy YES + NO < 1 through Maker + taker or Maker + Maker methods; this is called a market maker strategy and is unrelated to arbitrage. #预测市场龙头polymarket