Looking at KITE in recent days, many faint-hearted individuals will hastily believe that this is a golden opportunity to "jump ship". The price of KITE is hovering around 0.09264 USD, seemingly having escaped the previous swamp of 0.08000, creating lush green candles full of promise. However, for a systems engineer who has witnessed too many tricks of the market, this so-called "recovery" is merely a meticulously staged play, a trap laid for greedy and uninformed prey. This is not natural growth, but a deliberate pumping, preparing for a massacre of long positions.
Data doesn't lie, and it is screaming a brutal truth. Despite the deceptive green candles, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for both the Spot and Futures markets is deeply submerged in red. The CVD in the Spot market has plummeted to a shocking -15.56M USD, an undeniable evidence of the active selling pressure devouring all buying force. Similarly, the CVD for Futures is not much better, around -6.27M USD. What does this mean? It means that real money is fleeing, or at the very least, the selling side is systematically overwhelming, ready to unload at any opportunity. Who is buying? Certainly not the big players with long-term views. They are unloading on FOMO traders, those who are deluded about a miraculous growth.
At the same time, the Funding Rate of KITE remains extremely high, hovering around 0.0132 and at times soaring to 0.0157. This is the clearest indication that the crowd is extremely excited about the Long position, willing to pay fees to the Short side to maintain their blind faith. Open Interest (OI), the total amount of capital locked in derivative contracts, is maintaining at a towering level, around 239.024M USD. This is a colossal number, especially when compared to the overall trading Volume of just 12.99M USD in 24 hours. A sky-high OI along with a positive Funding Rate, while the CVD remains deep in the red, is a perfect formula for a large-scale liquidation. It shows that the Market Maker is accumulating Short positions at high price levels, collecting fees from Longs, and waiting for the right moment to trigger a sell-off, sweeping away those holding Longs. These numbers are not meaningless; they are tombstones waiting to be erected for uninformed investors. The fluctuations of Bid & Ask Delta with vibrant negative columns, sometimes exceeding 416.157K, further affirm that the selling pressure in the market is silently accumulating, ready to explode.
This is the brutal nature of the market, where manipulators continuously create psychological traps. They slightly push the price up, creating an illusion of growth, making late "jumpers" believe they have found the holy grail. But in reality, they are being cornered. With such a high Funding Rate, every passing hour, their Long positions are eroding. The enormous Open Interest is the "fuel" for continuous liquidations. All it takes is a slight push from a Market Maker, a large sell order enough to break the support structure, or even a small Oracle error causing sudden price fluctuations, and the whole system could collapse. Today's price of 0.09264 USD may serve as a psychological support, but with the current market structure of KITE, it is merely a price point easily pierced when the Market Maker decides to act.
The current "optimism" on KITE is just a fragile facade for a trap waiting to snap. Never trust the bright green candles if the fundamental indicators are screaming a different truth. What you see is a desperate effort to maintain faith, to lure more unsuspecting sheep into the slaughterhouse. Systemic risks are clearly present: when Long positions are excessively crowded, any correction could turn into a panic sell-off, where stop-loss orders are swept away, and liquidations occur en masse, driving the price even lower. KITE is a prime example of the fragility of assets inflated based on blind faith and lack of verification. The numbers in the image are not without meaning; they are an indictment of greed and ignorance.
Gems that are not polished do not shine, and people who do not learn do not succeed. This harsh market will never forgive ignorance. Blood lessons always come from the most painful falls. Do your own research, look deeply into the nature of cash flow, instead of chasing after constructed illusions.
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
