BlockBeats news, on December 21, Sean Farrell, the cryptocurrency strategy director of Fundstrat, a fund under Tom Lee, responded to the statement regarding "the divergence between his market perspective and Tom Lee's perspective" by stating, "Fundstrat has multiple analysts, each with their own independent research framework and different investment time dimensions, aimed at meeting the investment goals of different clients. My research mainly targets portfolios with a high proportion of crypto assets and adopts a relatively more aggressive market operation strategy.
Tom Lee's research primarily serves large fund management institutions and investors who allocate 1%-5% of their assets to BTC and ETH. Such strategies require a high level of self-discipline and a long-term perspective to grasp structural (long-term) trends in order to achieve excess returns over time. My goal is to help clients and subscribers with a high allocation of crypto assets (around 20% or more) to continuously outperform the market through active rebalancing across different cycles.
My cautious view for the first half of the year reflects risk management rather than a completely bearish stance. The current market pricing is almost perfect, but risks still exist, including government shutdowns, trade volatility, uncertainty in AI capital expenditures, and changes in the Federal Reserve Chair, while high-yield bond spreads are tightening and cross-asset volatility is low. Recent capital flows have also shown divergence. Bitcoin is currently in a valuation 'no man's land.' In the long term, with the entry of large brokerages, ETF demand should improve, but in the short term, it still faces pressures from original holders selling, miner pressures, the potential removal of MSTR by MSCI, and fund redemptions.
My benchmark judgment: there may be a rebound at the beginning of the year, followed by another correction in the first half, providing a more attractive opportunity for year-end positioning. If I am wrong in my judgment, I would prefer to wait for confirmation signals. For investors focused on this outlook, I still expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new historical highs before the end of the year, thus ending the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter and smaller bear market.
Previously reported, Tom Lee stated in an interview that 'Bitcoin may reach an all-time high before the end of January 2026,' while his Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell mentioned in a report on the 20th that 'Bitcoin may drop to $60,000 to $65,000 in the first half of 2026, and Ethereum may drop to $1,800 to $2,000.'
