Key positions determine direction, observation and waiting are more prudent

The large pie started a 4-hour level correction near 94600, with a minimum touch of 84500 before stopping the decline, which did not meet most people's psychological expectations. Whether it can end the decline and start a 4-hour level rebound still depends on the breakthrough situation of key resistance; if the breakthrough fails, it is highly likely to continue the 4-hour downward trend, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term.

From the 1-hour level, the large pie has shown a "down-up-down" three-wave structure after falling from 94600, theoretically there is a possibility to end the 4-hour decline, but the last wave's time and space are insufficient, and the trend still has variables.

From Friday to Saturday, the large pie started a 1-hour level rebound from 84500, with two subsequent scenarios:

1. If the rebound does not break through 90400, it is highly likely to oscillate in the range of 85300-90000 to build a 1-hour center, and then drop again, targeting around 80000 or lower;

2. If it breaks through 90400 and touches around 91000, it basically confirms the start of a new 4-hour rebound, with the daily decline likely finishing early at 80600, and the upper target looking at the 100000 level.

Judgment tips: If it turns down next Monday, it will follow the first trend; if it grinds until Tuesday morning without falling, the probability of the second trend is high.

At the 15-minute level, on Saturday, a center has already formed, and it is currently likely to move away from the center for a rebound, first looking at the 89500-90000 range. The lower level of 86800 is a key short-term support; if it breaks, it will start a new 1-hour decline, with the low point at least looking at 85000.

The logic of Ethereum's trend is consistent with that of the large pie, focusing on the breakthrough situation in the 3040-3050 range: if it breaks and stabilizes, it will start a 4-hour rebound, targeting 3600, offering a high cost-performance ratio for long positions; if the breakthrough fails, it will continue to build a 1-hour center, and breaking below 2920 will extend the decline.

Trend Overview

Weekly, daily: Direction down, daily decline is expected to end before Christmas

4-hour: Direction unclear, needs key levels to confirm if it stops falling

1-hour, 15-minute: Temporarily upward, the strength of the rebound determines the subsequent direction $BTC $ETH #比特币流动性