🔥 The weather has changed! The probability of the Federal Reserve nomination has turned around dramatically, who will take office and decide your wallet?
The competition for the Federal Reserve chair has entered a fever pitch. The latest data shows that Kevin Hassett's probability of winning has soared to 56%, leading again; while Walsh has dropped to 22%. This "personnel battle" is essentially the ultimate contest between White House political expectations and the independence of the Federal Reserve.
💡 Core logic breakdown:
• Hassett (dovish): If he takes power, he is very likely to initiate a "radical rate cut" mode, with policy direction highly aligned with the White House. The market may temporarily enter a period of excitement due to strong expectations of "liquidity injection."
• Walsh (hawkish/balanced): A representative of the Wall Street establishment. If he takes office, although he will follow the pace of rate cuts, he may simultaneously tighten the liquidity valves of the financial system.
For the cryptocurrency circle, Hassett's "expansionist" tendency is undoubtedly a strong stimulant at the macro level; while if Walsh is elected, one must guard against the growing pains caused by tightening liquidity at the margins.
