Author: Qingfeng btc (a trader who uses data to restore the truth)
The weekend market is so quiet that it makes one anxious.
Bitcoin (BTC) is stuck fluctuating around $89,000 like a flatline on an electrocardiogram, while Ethereum (ETH) is consolidating with low volume near $3,000.
Many retail investors are asking in the community: Is the bull market over? Did the main players run away?
If you only focus on the candlestick charts, you will only ever see the surface.
In the past 48 hours, I reviewed Glassnode's on-chain data and CME's positioning report and discovered a phenomenon more intriguing than a crash: global capital is undergoing a highly secretive repositioning.
Institutional capital flow: Not a retreat, but filling the pit.
The first thing we need to see clearly: where did the money from ETFs go?
According to the latest data from Farside Investors, as of the close of the US stock market this Friday, BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC) experienced a rare zero net inflow.
Note, it's zero, not negative.
What does this indicate? It indicates that Wall Street hasn't crashed the market, but neither has it bought in.
Why? Because the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike of 0.75% caused the cost of global yen arbitrage trading to spike instantly. Wall Street's quantitative models need to recalculate the cost of capital.
In simple terms, institutions are not pessimistic about BTC, but because the interest on borrowed money to buy coins has become more expensive, they are reevaluating the cost-performance ratio of $90,000.
This is called a tactical pause, not a strategic retreat.
On-chain whale movements: Exchange inventory leaks the secrets.
Looking at the chain again. If the main force wants to run away, the most direct indicator is that the exchange inflow will surge.
But I checked the data from CryptoQuant, and this value has been at a three-month low in the past 48 hours.
This means:
Old whales holding several thousand BTC have not moved their coins to the exchange to sell.
The current market is completely retail investors and high-frequency robots cutting each other.
Interestingly, the exchange reserves of stablecoins (USDT/USDC) are slowly rising.
This is an extremely strong signal: whales are exchanging fiat for U off the market, filling the exchanges, but they haven't started buying yet.
What are they waiting for?
They are waiting for the US stock market to open on Monday, waiting for the panic pit caused by the yen's interest rate hike to appear, and then conducting a violent sweep.
Reconstruction of mainstream coin logic: The awakening of the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
While BTC is flatlining, smart money is quietly doing one thing: switching tracks.
I don't know if you've noticed, but the ETH/BTC exchange rate has surprisingly held up under macro headwinds, even showing signs of rising.
The logic is very clear:
BTC is a macro asset, most sensitive to interest rates. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike hits BTC first.
But ETH and SOL are on-chain application assets.
With the expected inflow of Web3 funds due to Hainan's closure and the explosion of RWA (real-world assets on-chain), funds are beginning to feel that BTC at $90,000 is too heavy, and instead, allocating to the lagging ETH offers better value.
This is a typical sector rotation under stock game.
Next week's deduction and strategy of Qingfeng.
After seeing this data, are you still anxious?
Institutions haven't run away, whales are stockpiling bullets, only retail investors are scaring themselves.
The current stalemate is essentially the calm before the storm.
My judgment on next week's market is as follows:
On Monday, the US stock market opens (key point): There may be a false drop due to the lagging effect of the yen's interest rate hike, and BTC may instantly break through $82,000, even dipping to $80,000.
Golden pit appears: At that time, that's when the hundreds of millions of stablecoins on-chain will enter the market.
V confirmation: Once the spike is recovered, it will establish the final starting point for the sprint to $100,000 by the end of the year.
Operation suggestion:
Contract players: Don't move over the weekend; liquidity is too poor and prone to double explosions.
Spot players: Keep an eye on ETH and SOL. If BTC drops but they hold firm, boldly build positions.
Empty position players: Don't rush to chase the rise; patiently wait for that golden pit on Monday night.
Conclusion:
This is not the end of the world; it's just a turnover.
Some people have given up their bloody chips out of fear, while others are waiting with calculators for the opportunity to devour everything.
What kind of person do you want to be?
(If you find this in-depth review valuable, give it a thumbs up. We'll see the outcome when the market opens on Monday.)
