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Solana (SOL) is currently facing significant challenges in regaining bullish momentum after a sharp correction, as the price remains capped below the critical $130 resistance zone. Although the altcoin has shown early signs of stabilization, the overall recovery structure still looks fragile and lacks strong conviction.
Unlike previous rallies that were largely fueled by fresh capital inflows and speculative demand, Solana’s next potential move appears to rely heavily on existing holders rather than new market participants. This shift in market dynamics raises questions about how sustainable any short-term recovery could be.
Solana Holders Show Resilience Amid Weak Network Growth
On-chain data reveals the first signs of stabilization. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has risen sharply over the past few days. While CMF remains below the neutral zero line, its upward trajectory suggests that capital outflows are slowing down, which is a critical development for SOL’s recovery outlook.
Historically, a reduction in capital outflows often precedes a transition toward net inflows. If buying pressure begins to outweigh selling pressure, SOL price could react swiftly. Continued improvement in CMF would indicate that confidence among existing holders is gradually returning, reinforcing price stability.
However, broader network metrics paint a more cautious picture. The number of new Solana addresses has declined significantly, dropping from 6.077 million to 5.390 million in just ten days — a sharp 11.3% decrease. This decline suggests that new investor interest and speculative activity are fading, likely due to the absence of strong short-term catalysts.
With fewer new participants entering the ecosystem, existing holders now play a crucial role in maintaining price stability and supporting any recovery attempts.
SOL Price Outlook: Accumulation or Breakdown?
At the time of writing, SOL is trading around $126, still struggling to reclaim the $130 resistance level. Current price action reflects consolidation and accumulation, rather than a decisive breakout.
The immediate goal for Solana is to reclaim and hold above $130, which would signal improving short-term momentum and potentially open the door for a stronger recovery phase. The slowdown in capital outflows increases the probability of such a move, especially if holders continue accumulating and inflows return.
That said, for SOL to sustain levels above $130, it will require broader market support, not just short-lived speculative buying. Without consistent demand, any breakout attempt risks turning into a false move.
On the downside, bearish risks remain active. If selling pressure intensifies, SOL could be pushed below the $123 support zone. A confirmed breakdown below this level would expose the price to a deeper decline toward $118. Losing this support would significantly weaken the bullish outlook and reinforce short-term bearish momentum.
Final Thoughts
Solana is currently at a critical crossroads. While on-chain indicators suggest improving holder confidence, the lack of new network growth continues to limit upside potential. The next decisive move will depend on whether existing holders can absorb selling pressure — or whether broader market sentiment turns negative.
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