Brothers, with this market at the end of the year, it should be taking off, right?
Everyone says the US stock market will be on holiday next week, early leave on Wednesday, and lying flat on Thursday. But the real big show has just begun — Trump is holding back the Christmas fireworks and is likely to directly announce the next Federal Reserve chairperson.
What does this position mean? The total floodgate of global liquidity.
When he raises his wrist, Bitcoin can soar; when he presses his palm, the Nasdaq has to bow down and catch its breath.
Current betting trend (data fluctuates in real-time)
Kevin Hassett(Probability 54%) — Understanding Wang's own military advisor, the famous 'Old Pigeon', if it really goes up, there's a high probability of opening the floodgates.
Kevin Walsh(Probability 21%) - A veteran on Wall Street, a famous "hawk". If he takes office, expectations for tightening will be directly maximized.
Christopher Waller (Probability 14%) - Current internal technical faction of the Federal Reserve, prioritizing stability, likely to follow the old rules.
Two people have different styles, and the market cannot predict. It will not trend. It will maintain a fluctuating structure.
Hassett → The faucet is turned up, and the market may experience a wave of "liquidity bull market".
Walsh → The faucet is tightened, and the market should prepare for "difficult days".
Waller → The flow remains unchanged, continue to find food in the fluctuations.
Pay close attention to these time points next week (Beijing time)
Tuesday night
US Q3 GDP final value - whether the economy is genuinely strong or just relying on aid will be revealed this time.
Wednesday night
The Bank of Canada releases meeting minutes, and the number of initial jobless claims in the US - if the job market loosens, the rate hike knife could slowly fall.
Thursday daytime
Bank of Japan Governor's speech + unemployment rate - the "valve switch" of the Asian capital pool, especially watching if the YCC policy will suddenly change direction.
Market closure notice
Hong Kong stocks can still be played on Wednesday morning, but will close directly in the afternoon.
US stocks will close early at 2 AM on Wednesday, and the entire market will be on holiday on Thursday.
It's important to remind at what time; around Christmas, the market often "plays dead before the holiday and flips the table after." This year's biggest variable is the card of the Federal Reserve Chairman.
If Trump really announces during the Christmas period, the market will definitely "steal a march" in advance, and both the crypto and US stock markets will react violently.
Ordinary retail investors should try to "observe more and act less" in the next few days, especially on Thursday and Friday. Once liquidity dries up, even a small amount of capital can create deep pits.
When the referee makes substitutions, it is often the most chaotic time on the field.
Some can take advantage of the chaos, while others may be mistakenly eliminated.
Whether you can bear it depends on your understanding - who is injecting liquidity and who is withdrawing it.#比特币流动性 $BTC
