ME News, December 21 (UTC+8), Jocy, founding partner of IOSG, stated on social media that "2025 will be the darkest year for the crypto market and the dawn of the institutional era. This is a fundamental shift in market structure, while most people are still viewing the new era with the logic of the old cycle. A review of the crypto market in 2025 shows a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation, with core data indicating institutional holdings at 24%, and retail investors exiting at 66%, completing the turnover in the crypto market. Although BTC fell by 5.4% in 2025, it reached an all-time high of $126,080 during that period. The market dominance has shifted from retail to institutions. Institutions continue to accumulate at "high levels" because they are not focused on price, but on the cycle. Retail investors are selling, while institutions are buying. This is not the "top of a bull market", but rather the "institutional accumulation period". There will be a mid-term election in November 2026. Historical patterns indicate that "policy precedes elections in election years", so the investment logic should be: the first half of 2026 will be a policy honeymoon period with institutional allocation, optimistic about the market; the second half of 2026 will see political uncertainty and increased volatility. However, risks still exist such as Federal Reserve policies, a strong dollar, potential delays in market structure legislation, the possibility of continued selling by long-term holders, and uncertainty regarding mid-term election results. Yet, the other side of risk is opportunity; when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time for positioning. Short term (3-6 months): $87,000-$95,000 range fluctuations, institutions continue to accumulate. Mid-term (first half of 2026): driven by policy and institutions, target $120,000-$150,000. Long-term (second half of 2026): increased volatility, watch election results and policy continuity. This is not the peak of a cycle, but the starting point of a new cycle. 2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process in the crypto market. Despite BTC's annual return being negative, ETF investors have shown strong HODL resilience. On the surface, 2025 appears to be the worst for crypto, but in reality: the largest scale of supply turnover, the strongest institutional allocation willingness, the clearest policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvement. Though prices fell by 5%, ETF inflows reached $25 billion, optimistic about the first half of 2026. Key points for 2026 include: legislative progress on market structure bills, the possibility of expanding strategic Bitcoin reserves, and policy continuity after the mid-term elections. In the long term, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and the clarification of regulations lay the foundation for the next round of increases. When the market structure undergoes fundamental changes, old valuation logic will become ineffective, and new pricing power will be rebuilt." (Source: ME)

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