The market is playing out a textbook-level bear market script, but the next page of the script often contradicts retail investors' intuition. If you feel that emotions have cooled to the extreme, the upcoming facts and data may reveal the true picture beneath the surface.
1. Data does not lie: The bear market is currently ongoing.
The key metrics on-chain have provided a cold answer: Bitcoin has not only broken below the 365-day bull-bear line, but has also seen a continuous outflow of ETF funds and a perpetual contract funding rate dropping to freezing point, a dual confirmation. This is not just an adjustment, but a clear signal of a cycle transition, where each cycle change means a redistribution of wealth. The rules of this distribution are determined by currently overlooked details.
2. The cruel truth: this time even institutions have not been spared
You think only retail investors are being harvested, but data shows that cryptocurrency hedge funds are experiencing indiscriminate strikes. Altcoin strategy funds have an average drawdown of 23%, with $20 billion liquidated during the October flash crash.
Behind these numbers lies a more important truth:
When liquidity disappears, all stories temporarily lose their validity. But history shows that it is precisely during this complete silence that the next cycle's leaders are completing their chip exchanges.
3. Is the emotion at rock bottom? Beware of this classic cognitive trap
Extreme fear often accompanies turning points, but retail positions have not yet seen a 'complete capitulation' reduction. This suggests that the real price bottom may not have arrived yet. Deutsche Bank AI has captured a key pattern: market panic peaks are often accompanied by 'inverse excitement' signals within the system. Do you also feel this contradiction at this moment?
Waiting for these three signals is more meaningful than guessing the bottom
A real rebound does not require widespread expectation, just a few key signals to confirm:
1. The sustainability of ETF fund flow reversal (daily inflows do not count)
2. The certainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy shift (currently the probability of a rate cut in early 2026 is only 22.1%)
3. The activity of large on-chain addresses (smart money's early layout). When these signals appear, the market will not give everyone ample time to think.
Survival guide: What matters more than making money in a bear market
Before the next stage of the market starts, you should do three things: view stablecoins as options for future purchasing power rather than cash. Systematically scan for assets whose fundamentals remain unchanged but have been halved and halved again in price. And reduce your position leverage to a level where you can sleep soundly. A bear market tests not earning ability, but risk control ability and patience.
The market always reserves seats for those who persist in desperation, but the premise is that you can clearly distinguish between what is despair and what is hope.
While most are still debating whether we've hit the bottom, the real planners are answering another question: 'If this isn't the bottom, can my positions survive until the next recovery?'#熊市预警 #加密市场观察
