#USNonFarmPayrollReport Here is the summary of the latest US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Report (covering November 2025 data), which was released on Tuesday, December 16, 2025.
> Note: This report was delayed from its usual first-Friday slot due to the recent federal government shutdown, which also heavily impacted the data collection and headline figures for October.
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Executive Summary
The November report paints a picture of a labor market struggling to regain footing after the disruptions caused by the autumn government shutdown. While the headline number for November was positive (+64K), it follows a massive revision and loss in October (-105K), confirming a net job loss over the two-month period. The unemployment rate has ticked up significantly, signaling potential recessionary pressures.
1. Key Data Points
| Indicator | Actual (Nov) | Forecast | Previous (Oct) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Farm Payrolls | +64,000 | +50,000 | -105,000 | ⚠️ Volatile |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% (Sep) | 🔴 Rising |
| Avg. Hourly Earnings (MoM) | +0.1% | +0.3% | N/A | 🔵 Cooling |
| Avg. Hourly Earnings (YoY) | +3.5% | +3.6% | -- | 🔵 Cooling |
2. Deep Dive & Analysis
* Shutdown Distortion (The "Hole"): The most critical takeaway is the net loss of ~41,000 jobs across October and November combined. October saw a steep loss of 105,000 jobs (likely due to furloughed government contractors and halted hiring), and November's +64,000 gain was merely a partial bounce-back, not genuine growth.
* Unemployment Spike: The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a significant jump from the 4.2–4.4% range seen earlier in 2025. This is the highest level since late 2021 and is a major red flag for the Federal Reserve.
* Wage Pressures Evaporating: With month-over-month wage growth at a meager 0.1%, inflation fears from the wage side are effectively dead. This gives the Fed ample room to cut rates aggressively.
* Sector Breakdown:
* Government: Continued losses (-5K in Nov, following massive Oct drops).
* Healthcare & Construction: The only bright spots adding meaningful jobs (+18K and +28K respectively).
* Transport & Warehousing: Shedding jobs (-18K), indicating a slowdown in consumer goods demand.
3. Market Implications
* Fed Policy: The "Soft Landing" narrative is shifting rapidly to fears of a "Hard Landing." With unemployment at 4.6% and net job losses over two months, markets are likely pricing in aggressive rate cuts for the upcoming January 2026 FOMC meeting.
* USD: Likely bearish due to falling yields and expectations of easing.
* Equities: May face volatility; bad news is "good news" for rate cuts, but "bad news" for earnings if the recession risk is real.
Would you like a breakdown of the specific sectors (e.g., Manufacturing vs. Services) to see where the weakness is most concentrated?