🔴 BTCUSDT – Deep Correction Scenario (Monthly Frame)
📉 Context
Bitcoin has come from a parabolic impulse that drove the price to the area of 126,200 USDT. Currently, the market shows a loss of momentum, a break of the EMA 10, and progressive bearish pressure. The focus now is on whether the price loses the key macro support.
⚠️ Deep correction trigger
📌 Monthly close below the EMA 21 (~87,000)
This event would mark a phase change:
From healthy correction
To deeper structural correction
It would not be a macro trend change, but rather a significant retracement in time and price.
📐 Target areas in deep correction
🟠 First target
78,000 – 80,000
Psychological zone + previous support
Possible initial technical bounce
🔴 Maximum probability zone
72,000 – 75,000
Confluence of:
Monthly EMA 50
Old consolidation zone
Structural support of the cycle
📌 This zone often acts as an area of institutional reaccumulation.
🔥 Extreme scenario (low probability)
65,000 – 68,000
Only possible if:
Adverse macroeconomic conditions
Strong exogenous event
Widespread risk-off drop
Even this scenario does NOT break the long-term bullish cycle
📊 Indicators that CONFIRM correction
RSI (6) monthly ≈ 39 → room to fall without overselling
Decreasing volume → capitulation has not yet occurred
Lack of clear bullish divergences
Structure of lower highs and lows in smaller frames
🧠 Market reading
If BTC loses the monthly EMA 21, the market will enter a phase of patience, lateralization, and cleaning of excess leverage.
These phases historically precede the strongest movements of the cycle, but they are not immediate
🟡 Conclusion
Deep correction = likely only with confirmed loss of EMA 21
Zone 72k–75k = critical macro support
Not a bear market → it is a reset of the cycle
Time will be the dominant factor, not speed
📌 Technical analysis for educational purposes. Does not constitute financial recommendation
