2025-12-21

The market is getting harder and harder to read. From charts and price action alone, everything looks bullish, but if interest rates don’t fall and instead move higher, navigating what comes next will only become more difficult.

If rates fail to decline and actually rise, does a future rate cut automatically mean prices will go up?

When the usual pros and cons stop having an impact, it really does start to feel like a pure gamble.

If interest-rate adjustments can truly be priced in ahead of time, I honestly can’t wrap my head around it…

I watched the market for a while in the evening, then decided to sleep early.

Tomorrow morning around 8 a.m., I’ll continue observing the Nikkei, hoping it doesn’t move in an unfavorable direction. If it dips slightly tonight and rebounds, then dips again tomorrow morning and recovers, and later slips a bit more before bouncing back, that would feel acceptable. But if it drops sharply, I really don’t know how many people could get wiped out.

As long as the Nikkei hasn’t experienced a major drop, I can’t commit heavy capital. I’ll stick to day trading or very light positions. I can make less, or even make nothing, but I absolutely cannot afford a big loss.

The upper range is around 888–894, and the lower range is 863 and 858. Let’s see how it chooses to move.

Today is the winter solstice — don’t forget to eat dumplings. 🥟