$BTC Based on the opinions of analysts and major institutions, it appears that the issue of the "four-year cycle" remains a real point of contention. No
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There is currently a consensus, with opinion divided into two main camps reflecting a deep shift in the understanding of the Bitcoin market.
To clarify opposing viewpoints, the main arguments from each side can be summarized as follows:
The first camp: the traditional cycle has ended
· The fundamental argument: The nature of the market has changed due to institutional capital and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), making old patterns irrelevant.
· 2026 Predictions: A continuous rise is expected, with prices reaching new record levels while avoiding severe recession ("winter").
· Supporting reasons: Weakening halving impact, stable institutional capital flows through funds, greater regulatory clarity, Bitcoin's adoption as a macroeconomic asset.
· Prominent proponents: Grayscale, Bitwise (Matt Hogan), ARK Invest (Cathie Wood).
The second camp: the traditional cycle is still ongoing
· The fundamental argument: The current price movement aligns perfectly with the historical pattern (rise followed by correction).
· 2026 Predictions: A quiet year or "year of rest" with the possibility of continued weakness or correction.
· Supporting reasons: The peak in October 2025 aligns with the timing expectations of the cycle and the presence of a historical support area.
· Prominent proponents: Fidelity (Jurrien Timmer), some historical analyses.
What is the prevailing opinion among institutions?
The majority of votes in the survey results indicate that the camp advocating for the end of the traditional cycle currently enjoys greater support from institutions and Wall Street analysts. There seems to be a narrative shift from focusing on the "halving cycle" to focusing on the "institutional cycle" or the so-called "super cycle."
The key factors underlying this shift are:
· Market structure change: The market is no longer controlled by individual speculators; it has shifted to long-term capital flow from pension funds and asset managers through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
· Weakening of halving impact: With nearly 94% of the total Bitcoin mined, the impact of reducing inflationary supply has become marginal compared to previous cycles.
· Increasing dominance of macroeconomics: Bitcoin's price has become more sensitive to global market liquidity, real interest rates, and risk appetite, moving as a macroeconomic asset.
· Decreased volatility: Data indicates a general decline in Bitcoin volatility as the market matures and the investor base diversifies.
Summary and looking to the future
Most analysts agree that 2026 will be a crucial year for choosing between the two scenarios. Price movement and its ability to stay above support levels (such as the $65,000-$75,000 range mentioned by a Fidelity analyst) will determine which path prevails.
In short: the "four-year cycle" is no longer a sacred rule. The entry of institutional capital has introduced new variables that reshape the game. While some warn against ignoring history, many see that Bitcoin has entered a new maturity phase where volatility decreases, and structural and economic factors become the main drivers.
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