Long-term holders still hold 13.6M BTC, suggesting they haven’t sold despite potential gains.
Bitcoin’s sentiment charts show fear and greed cycles, helping predict market highs and lows.
Analyst warns acting now beats waiting for dips, as FOMO may push late buyers into higher prices.
Bitcoin investors may face a critical opportunity as market dynamics hint at a significant bullish move. Long-term holders still maintain a massive 13.6 million BTC, showing they haven’t realized satisfactory profits yet.
According to analyst CW, this level mirrors the maximum holdings observed in the previous cycle. Hence, when Bitcoin prices rise, these long-term holders could gradually transfer their coins to short-term traders. CW explains that the market cycle’s peak will likely coincide with extreme greed, emphasizing that a true rally hasn’t yet occurred this cycle.
CW’s analysis leverages the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric to track Bitcoin’s price alongside investor sentiment. In simple terms, it measures whether holders are in profit or at a loss, grouping feelings into emotional phases such as fear, optimism, belief, and euphoria.
Consequently, the chart reveals a recurring behavioral pattern. Sharp price increases push NUPL into upper zones labeled “Belief/Denial” and “Euphoria/Greed,” periods often preceding market tops. Conversely, sharp declines drive NUPL into negative “Hope/Fear” zones, signaling potential market bottoms and recovery opportunities.
Market Behavior and Current Outlook
Analyst Captain Faibik highlights that Bitcoin recently completed a +36% correction, contrary to earlier skepticism from the community. He emphasizes that Bitcoin is now poised for a bullish rally. Moreover, he warns that waiting for another dip may cause investors to miss entry opportunities.
Faibik advises, “In next few days, Bitcoin will breakout & then everyone will rush in with FOMO entries which won’t be beneficial.” Hence, timely action is crucial to avoid being late to the market surge.
Recovery phases often sit in middle NUPL zones, marked as “Optimism/Anxiety,” indicating cautious investor confidence. These times also demonstrate that sentiment-driven markets are not at all random. Bitcoin cycles are heavily influenced by human emotions such as fear, greed, and optimism. As a result, traders who keep an eye on these signals can predict significant movements before the market as a whole responds.
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