Headline
U.S. lawmakers proposed tax relief for small stablecoin payments and staking rewards
U.S. lawmakers have proposed a draft discussion that aims to alleviate the tax burden on ordinary cryptocurrency users by exempting capital gains tax on small stablecoin transactions, including a $200 tax exemption for stablecoin payments and providing new deferral options for staking and mining rewards. According to the draft, if the stablecoin is issued by an issuer authorized under the (GENIUS Act), pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the trading price remains within a narrow range around $1, users will not need to confirm gains or losses on transactions not exceeding $200.
▌The Ethereum Community Foundation responded to the '50 million USDT phishing attack': the practice of truncating addresses with ellipses should be stopped.
In response to the '50 million USDT phishing attack' incident, the Ethereum Community Foundation stated on platform X that the practice of truncating addresses with ellipses (e.g., 0xbaf4b1aF...B6495F8b5) should be stopped. Address information needs to be fully displayed, as hiding parts of the address can cause unnecessary risks. Moreover, some UI options provided by certain wallets and blockchain explorers also pose security issues that can actually be resolved. Reportedly, the phishing attacker generated an address with the first and last three characters the same, and the victim, not carefully checking the copied address, transferred 50 million USDT to the similar address generated by the attacker.
Market conditions
As of the time of writing, according to CoinGecko data:
BTC price is $88,434.18, 24-hour change +0.2%;
ETH price is $2,996.34, 24-hour change +0.7%;
BNB price is $856.48, 24-hour change +0.5%;
SOL price is $125.69, 24-hour change +0.1%;
DOGE price is $0.1307, 24-hour change -0.9%;
XRP price is $1.92, 24-hour change -0.6%;
TRX price is $0.2882, 24-hour change +2.6%;
WLFI price is $0.1343, 24-hour change -0.1%;
HYPE price is $24.55, 24-hour change +2.4%.
Policy
▌The cryptocurrency industry intensively responds to U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis not seeking re-election.
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis announced that she will not seek re-election, a decision that has triggered reactions within the cryptocurrency industry. Lummis has long been seen as a key figure supporting Bitcoin and crypto assets in Congress, and many in the industry have expressed gratitude, believing her policy push has had a positive impact on industry development: Collin McCune (a16z Head of Government Affairs): Without Lummis's fight in Congress, the crypto industry could not have developed to this extent; David Sacks (White House AI and Crypto Affairs Director / Crypto Tsar): called Lummis a 'great ally in the crypto space,' expressing 'great regret' at her departure; Greg Xethalis (Multicoin Capital Partner): praised the topics prioritized by Cynthia Lummis for going far; Kyle Samani (Multicoin Capital Partner): 'The work is not done; we still have legislation to pass in 2026'; Natalie Brunell (Bitcoin evangelist, host of Coin Stories): thanked Lummis for her 'service and efforts to promote Bitcoin' and wished her a wonderful next chapter. Previously, it was reported that U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis's term will end in January 2027, and she announced that she will not seek re-election.
▌Indiana State Representative: The cryptocurrency bill should not only benefit mainstream assets like BTC.
According to Decrypt, Indiana State Representative Kyle Pierce stated that while Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency asset, legislation should not only benefit BTC. The cryptocurrency bill he submitted this month deliberately keeps broad terms without a market cap threshold, avoiding 'picking winners and losers' in legislation. Pierce emphasized that the goal is to promote the entire cryptocurrency market, not just lock in Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Tether. Unlike states like New Hampshire, the bill does not set a $500 billion market cap limit. Pierce stated that newly issued tokens are not suitable as retirement investments for public servants and will be adjusted in hearings later. The bill also includes protections for miners, stating that the state government cannot take negative measures targeted at mining activities. ▌U.S. officials say that the partial release of Epstein case documents is to protect victims.
On December 21 local time, U.S. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanch defended the decision to partially release documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein case before the deadline set by Congress, stating that this move was intended to protect the victims of the Epstein case. Blanch promised that the Trump administration would ultimately fulfill its legal obligations. However, he emphasized that the Department of Justice has an obligation to act cautiously when releasing thousands of documents that may contain sensitive information.
▌The European Central Bank indicated that it may launch a digital euro within the next three years.
On Friday, the digital euro received support from the European Council, which endorsed a design plan that integrates both online and offline functionalities, and the European Central Bank indicated that it may launch the digital euro within the next three years.
Blockchain applications
▌Vitalik: Predictive markets are a good remedy for crazy views on emotional topics.
Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin stated on Farcaster that predictive markets are a good remedy for crazy views on emotional topics, as many users on social media exaggerate claims that 'something will definitely happen' to create panic or attract attention without taking responsibility. In contrast, predictive markets involve real monetary bets, tending to reflect true probabilities and combat these 'crazy views.'
▌BNBChain: BSCScan API is now deprecated; developers need to use Etherscan API V2.
On December 21, BNBChain released a developer notice stating that the BSCScan API is now deprecated, and users need to switch to the Etherscan API V2. To ensure uninterrupted service and achieve better API performance, migration to BSCTrace via MegaNode is required.
▌Australian cryptocurrency exchange CoinJar announced its U.S. expansion plan.
According to CrowdfundInsider, Australian cryptocurrency exchange CoinJar announced its entry into the U.S. market. The company previously operated in Australia, the UK, and Ireland, and this move means CoinJar will operate under federal and state regulatory frameworks in the U.S. As part of its U.S. expansion plan, CoinJar will launch CoinJarAI, an assistant directly integrated into its cryptocurrency trading platform, which can 'help users query portfolio information and market dynamics.' CoinJar is reportedly one of the few exchanges that 'has integrated AI-powered portfolio and market tools into its platform to enter the U.S. market.' In addition to operating in Australia, CoinJar has also obtained licenses in Ireland and the UK, with investors including DCG, BoostVC, and BlackbirdVentures.
Cryptocurrency
▌IOSG founding partner: 2025 is the 'worst year' for the crypto market, but optimistic for 2026.
IOSG founding partner Jocy posted on platform X stating that 2025 is the 'worst year' for the crypto market, OG investors have three waves of selling from March 2024 to November 2025, long-term holders (LTH) sold approximately 1.4 million BTC (worth $121.17 billion): the first wave (end of 2023 - early 2024): ETF approval, BTC rises from $25,000 to $73,000; the second wave (end of 2024): Trump elected, BTC surges to $100,000; the third wave (2025): BTC stays above $100,000 for a long time. Unlike the single explosive distribution in 2013, 2017, and 2021, this time it is multi-wave continuous distribution. The past year has seen BTC stagnate at high points for a year, a situation that has never occurred before, with over 2 years of unmovable BTC reduced by 1.6 million (about $140 billion) since early 2024. But the other side of risk is opportunity, in investment logic: short term (3-6 months): fluctuations in the $87,000 to $95,000 range, institutions continue to build positions; mid-term (first half of 2026): driven by policy + institutions, target $120,000 to $150,000; long term (second half of 2026): increased volatility, watching election results and policy continuity.
▌Galaxy research director: Bitcoin will rise to $250,000 by the end of 2027
Galaxy Digital research director Alex Thorn stated that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. The trend in 2026 is too chaotic to predict, but it is still possible for Bitcoin to reach a historical high in 2026. Currently, the pricing in the options market shows that by the end of June 2026, the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $70,000 or rising to $130,000 is nearly equal; and by the end of 2026, the probabilities of dropping to $50,000 or rising to $250,000 are also close. Such a wide price range reflects the market's high uncertainty regarding short- to medium-term prospects.
▌Casa co-founder: Bitcoin's quantum upgrade may face challenges over a time span of 5–10 years.
Casa co-founder Jameson Lopp stated on social media that discussions about the risks of quantum computing to Bitcoin have been ongoing for 18 months, with the main conclusion being: 'I sincerely hope that the development of quantum computing can stagnate or even recede, because adapting Bitcoin for the post-quantum era will be very challenging for many reasons. Quantum computers will not break the Bitcoin network in the short term. However, a comprehensive overhaul of the Bitcoin network (and unprecedented capital migration) may take 5 to 10 years. We should hope for the best but also prepare for the worst.'
▌Analysis: Bitcoin's RSI relative to gold has fallen to near three-year lows, regarded as the boundary between bull and bear markets.
The Bitcoin to Gold (BTC/XAU) price has dropped to about the level of 20 ounces of gold, the lowest since early 2024, while the weekly RSI indicator for this ratio has fallen to around 29.5 (oversold zone), close to a three-year low. Data shows that this RSI oversold area has historically often appeared near bear market bottoms, and some analysts believe it may indicate that Bitcoin is undervalued and has room for a rebound in the future. However, there are also viewpoints suggesting that if this key support is lost, it may signal a weakening trend.
▌Michael Saylor has released Bitcoin Tracker information again.
Strategy founder Michael Saylor has released information related to the Bitcoin Tracker again. According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses increased Bitcoin holdings the day after relevant news is released.
▌F2Pool co-founder: Last year to confirm whether the private key was leaked, transferred 500 Bitcoins, hackers took away 490 Bitcoins
Regarding the community's heated discussion on the 50 million USDT phishing attack, F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun tweeted, 'Last year, I suspected my private key was leaked. To confirm whether the address was really stolen, I transferred 500 Bitcoins to that address. To my surprise, the hacker 'generously' only took 490 Bitcoins, leaving me with 10 Bitcoins, enough to sustain my life.'
▌Northern Data has sold its Bitcoin mining business to a company operated by Tether executives.
According to the UK (Financial Times), Tether-backed Northern Data has sold its Bitcoin mining business to a company operated by Tether executives. The buyers of Peak Mining—Highland Group Mining Inc., Appalachian Energy LLC, and 2750418 Alberta ULC—are directly related to Tether's leadership. Records from the British Virgin Islands show that Highland Group Mining is controlled by Tether co-founder and chairman Giancarlo Devasini and the firm's CEO Paolo Ardoino. Canadian documents indicate that Devasini is the sole director of Alberta ULC. The ownership structure of Appalachian Energy LLC, registered in Delaware, remains opaque, with no publicly listed directors.
▌Point72 purchased 390,665 shares of MSTR for approximately $65 million
Top multi-strategy hedge fund Point72 Asset Management purchased approximately 6500 shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) for about $65 million.
▌Bitcoin treasury company BTCS S.A. has partnered with QCP and increased its Bitcoin holdings to 137 coins.
Poland's Bitcoin treasury company BTCS S.A. announced a partnership with Singapore digital asset solutions provider QCP Group to promote its Bitcoin treasury strategy from passive holding to active management using cash-collateralized option structures and cumulative weighted frameworks. It is reported that BTCS S.A. has increased its holdings by 21.684 BTC, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 137 coins.
▌A smart money address has tripled its long position on ETH, with a holding value of approximately $89 million.
According to The Data Nerd monitoring, a smart money address (profiting $19 million in one month) went long on ETH with 3x leverage yesterday on Hyperliquid, with a position value of approximately $89 million.
Important economic dynamics
▌Hassett: Consistent with Goolsbee's viewpoint, there is still ample room for interest rate cuts.
U.S. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated that President Trump will appoint his own people to serve as Federal Reserve Chair, and once this happens, the Federal Reserve will no longer be an issue. Hassett stated that he believes the U.S. economy is not in 'employment recession,' and the situation of excessive inflation has ended. At the same time, consistent with Goolsbee's viewpoint, there is still ample room for interest rate cuts.
▌Hassett: Trump is seeking candidates for Federal Reserve Chair who rely on data.
U.S. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Trump wants the Federal Reserve Chair to make independent judgments, and Trump is seeking candidates for Federal Reserve Chair who rely on data.
▌Federal Reserve's Harmack: More concerned about persistently high inflation, inclined to keep interest rates stable until spring.
Federal Reserve's Harmack stated that after three consecutive interest rate cuts in the past meetings, there is no need for any adjustment in interest rates in the coming months. Harmack opposes recent rate cuts, as she is more concerned about persistently high inflation rather than potential weakness in the labor market. Although Harmack is not a voting member of the rate-setting committee this year, she will become a voting member next year. 'My basic expectation is that interest rates can be maintained at the current level for some time, at least until spring. Until we have clearer evidence indicating either that inflation is retreating to target levels or that the labor market is experiencing more substantive weakness,' she said in an interview on Thursday with the Wall Street Journal’s Take On the Week podcast.
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year is 79%.
According to CME's 'Fed Watch': The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 21%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates is 79%. By March next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 47.1%, with a 43.4% probability of maintaining rates unchanged, and a 9.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut.
Golden Encyclopedia
▌The true impact of quantitative easing policy on cryptocurrency.
If we are to discuss 'quantitative easing (QE) being beneficial for cryptocurrency,' we must first acknowledge a disturbing fact: the entire history of cryptocurrency has been within a very limited liquidity environment, and only part of it fits the traditional notion of quantitative easing after 2008. So far, the conclusion is: since cryptocurrency has become a real market, we only have a few relatively 'clean' liquidity environments to study—and the most influential one (2020) was also the most unusual. But this does not mean that the claim of quantitative easing is wrong. Rather, it means that this claim itself is probabilistic: a loose financial environment often benefits long-term, high beta assets, and cryptocurrencies are often the purest embodiment of this phenomenon. However, when we delve into the data, we need to distinguish the following four factors: (1) balance sheet expansion, (2) interest rate cuts, (3) dollar trends, and (4) risk sentiment—because they do not always move synchronously.
Markets rarely wait for liquidity to arrive. They often begin trading policy direction long before the policy mechanisms are reflected in the data. This is especially true for cryptocurrencies, which tend to react to expectations—such as shifts in policy tone, signals about balance sheet policy, and anticipated changes in interest rate paths—rather than react to the slow, gradual impacts of actual asset purchases. This is why the price movements of cryptocurrencies often precede declines in yields and a weaker dollar, and even appear before any substantial expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. In the short term, cryptocurrency prices remain influenced by market sentiment and position fluctuations, and their movements depend not only on macro policy but also on positions and leverage. While liquidity helps, it does not supersede all other influencing factors.
