To answer the question of whether $AVAX will drop to the 10 USD level, we need to look at the most immediate technical data on the chart you provided, combined with the current market context.
1. Analyze the "Survival" support zone
Looking at the Weekly (1W) and Monthly (1M) charts of AVAX:
Current price level: ~$12.12.
Psychological support and history: The range of $11.00 - $11.50 is an extremely strong support area. This is where many retracement waves have started in the past.
The $10 mark: This is a round psychological number. However, on the technical chart, the actual strong support area is at $8.34 - $9.10 (the lowest point of the previous cycle).
Scenario 2: What brings #AVAX to $10? (Feasible but requires conditions)
The price level of $10 is completely POSSIBLE (with a probability of about 30-40%) if it falls into the following scenarios:
Bitcoin collapses: If Bitcoin cannot hold the $80,000 mark and falls to the $72,000 - $75,000 range, altcoins like AVAX will be further sold off by 15-20%, at which point the price of $10 is completely possible.
Liquidity sweep (Flash Crash): The market often experiences extremely fast 'wicked' candles to sweep long orders. The price may hit $10 within minutes and then bounce back immediately.
ETF news delayed: If the SEC gives negative signals about VanEck's ETF application, disappointment will push prices deeper into the current accumulation zone.
Why can the $10 level be difficult for direct orders?
Buy orders waiting: Many investors and institutions are also placing buy limit orders in the $10.5 - $11.0 range. This creates a 'buy wall' making it difficult for prices to break through unless a major event occurs.
Oversold RSI: As analyzed, AVAX's weekly RSI is at a very low level (~19-20). At this level, selling pressure usually exhausts, making it difficult for prices to drop another 20% without a bounce.
Strategy suggestion for you
Instead of 'going all in' waiting for the exact number $10 (as the price may only drop to $10.5 and then bounce back, causing you to miss the opportunity), you should use DCA strategy (Dollar Cost Averaging):
Order 1 (Buy now): Buy 30% of the position at the current price (~$12.1).
Order 2 (Waiting): Place a limit buy order for 40% in the $10.8 - $11.1 range.
Order 3 (Backup): Place a limit buy order for the remaining 30% at exactly $10.0.
Conclusion: Buying AVAX at $10 is a fairly smart and safe target, but you should be flexible. If you are too rigid with the number $10, you risk being 'left behind' if the market recovers early from the $11 range.
Good luck!