Bitcoin Market Update: Analysts Divided on 2026 Outlook
Bitcoin remains under pressure after breaking below its 365-day moving average (~$98,172), signaling weakened long-term trend support. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin demand growth falling below trend since October 2025, with apparent demand contracting through Q4. BTC is currently trading near $88,350.
Institutional sentiment has cooled, with Bitcoin ETF holdings declining by approximately 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025— a sharp reversal from strong accumulation in Q4 2024. Market indicators reinforce the cautious outlook: perpetual futures funding rates are at their lowest since December 2023, while the Fear & Greed Index remains in Extreme Fear (20).
The BTC-gold ratio has dropped to ~20 ounces, a historical inflection level. While some warn this may confirm a broader downtrend, others point to a bullish RSI divergence suggesting potential undervaluation.
Looking ahead to 2026, views remain split. Bearish forecasts see downside toward $75,000–$65,000, while more constructive outlooks anticipate recovery driven by potential rate cuts and renewed demand. The trajectory will largely depend on macro policy, ETF flows, and stabilization in selling pressure.
