Last week, the BTC price experienced multiple rounds of abnormal fluctuations. After breaking through the 90,000 USD mark, the price quickly fell back, showing a generally irregular oscillation trend, significantly increasing the difficulty of contract trading operations.

Looking back at the trading suggestions from early December, after the price stabilized and stopped falling around 80,000 USD, the previous three futures trades had high participation value; however, as the market environment changed, the subsequent trading strategy has clearly switched to options tools to replace the high-volatility risk of futures trading.

Entering mid to late December, the market volatility has continued to converge after five days, and the execution focus of the options strategy has simultaneously shifted to **buy low strategy**: by selling put options in the 80,000-85,000 USD range, if the price falls below the strike price, delivery will be completed, while simultaneously buying spot positions and holding until the end of Q4 options delivery to exit. From this month's actual performance, this strategy has achieved the expected returns.

As the end of 2025 approaches, this Friday will see the annual options expiration, with the nominal BTC positions for this expiration reaching as high as 260,000 coins. Coupled with the market environment of the upcoming Christmas holiday, historical experience shows that market trading activity usually declines before and after the holiday, with limited volatility. The probability of a smooth expiration of this options contract is quite high, and the expected expiration price is likely to fall within the range of $85,000 to $95,000.

After the annual expiration is completed on Friday, the market will officially enter a new quarterly cycle. Based on the current market structure, two potential evolution paths for BTC's future trend are proposed:

1. Bottom confirmation type oscillation: with a phase bottom around $80,000, constructing a large-scale oscillation整理 pattern with an upper limit of $110,000 to $120,000, completing trend repair by exchanging time for space. The core verification signal for this path lies in the strength of the rebound—only when the price effectively stands above $110,000 can the core logic of bottom construction be confirmed.

2. Downward continuation type oscillation: the current range oscillation after the stop of decline belongs to a downward continuation pattern, and the price may restart a downward trend, targeting below $60,000. In this path, the rebound strength will be significantly suppressed, with the maximum rebound height likely stopping around $100,000, and conventional pressure points concentrated in the $95,000 area; from a time dimension constraint perspective, if this expectation is met, clear bearish force must be released before the mid-term of Q1 2026 to achieve an effective breakthrough of the left-side low point around $80,000.

Based on the uncertainty judgment of the two paths for the future market, new position layouts will be paused in the short term, with plans to observe for 1-2 weeks, tracking key price breakout situations and volume changes, and then determining the future trading direction.

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