I fed a bunch of opinions from domestic and international big shots focusing on cryptocurrency, contract trading, and blockchain to grok, and grok helped me summarize the opinions to share with everyone! $BTC
Short-term driving factors
After the interest rate hike in Japan (on the 19th), the market did not collapse but rebounded weakly, seen more as 'bad news exhausted'.
The year-end settlement of options + global correction expectations (AI dulling, capital expenditure slowing) may exacerbate volatility.
Suggestion: low leverage or no position, seize the 'failed downward sweep → rebound' opportunity.
Medium to long-term optimistic
Divergence signals from bottom divergence + decrease in open interest show reduced disagreement, increasing the probability of a rebound (BTC 4H/daily has already appeared).
Risk
If key support is broken (such as BTC 84k or Shanghai Composite 3800), it will accelerate the decline; high uncertainty of events (Federal Reserve path).
