For a long time, we've understood prediction markets as a very "rational" thing: people bet on the future based on publicly available information, and market prices reflect consensus. But over the past year, we've become increasingly aware of one thing: many prediction markets aren't actually "predicting the future," but rather revealing in advance those "outcomes already known to a minority."
When an outcome is already determined, but not yet publicly announced, the prediction market becomes an extremely ruthless entity: it doesn't need leaks, anonymous letters, or even a single sentence. The direction of funds itself is a leak.
Prediction markets are changing the way "secrets" exist:
Imagine a few scenarios:
A popular TV series has finished filming, but will the main character actually die?
The judging process for a game award is basically complete, but the results have not yet been announced.
• An AI company is about to release a key product or make an acquisition.
• Regulatory outcomes, listing date, and governance voting trends for a specific crypto protocol.
In the traditional world, this is called "insider information." But with the emergence of prediction markets, they face a new problem: as long as someone knows it and can place bets, the secret is hard to keep from being detected by the market. You don't need to know "who said what," you just need to see:
Which options are being unusually heavily invested in?
Which addresses continued to bet during key periods?
Which accounts repeatedly "bet correctly in advance" in similar incidents?
This is not a conspiracy theory; it is a natural result of probability and incentives.
From "Content Reporting" to "Results Stress Testing"
This is why we've begun to rethink the traditional news model. The old content logic was: event occurs → a few people know → report (publish) → the public knows.
Prediction markets offer a different path: an event occurs → someone knows → someone bets → prices begin to deviate → the world already "knew in advance".
There's even an more extreme path: the event occurs → someone knows about it → someone places a bet → the price starts to deviate → causing the event to change.
Regarding this path, I can give a classic example. At the end of Coinbase's (NASDAQ: COIN) Q3 2025 earnings call, CEO Brian Armstrong made a seemingly casual remark:
"I'm a bit drawn to a prediction market, and I'm tracking predictions on what we'll say on this earnings call... so I have to say these words before the call ends: Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web3."
These words weren't random; they were bets placed on prediction markets regarding whether certain words would appear during the conference call. After Armstrong made his statement, the prediction markets settled their bets immediately, and those who correctly predicted the words profited. Reportedly, over $80,000 in bets were settled instantly on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
In other words, without these bets, in another parallel world, Brian Armstrong would have simply gone through the earnings call process normally, without deliberately using those words. This is the "reality distortion field" of prediction markets; betting itself has the power to change reality. This is common in sports betting, where the outcome is often biased towards the option with the fewest bets due to insider manipulation. However, whether it's the words in Coinbase's earnings call or a football match, they don't have a significant impact on the world we live in. But as Polymarket and Kalshi grow, these topics will become increasingly relevant to our lives, and this "reality distortion field" of prediction markets will genuinely affect our lives.
In the future world, content will no longer be the starting point of information, but rather a tool for verification and interpretation. In extreme cases, content can even change reality. This is what BlockBeats' prediction market reporting does: it's not a "prediction market guide," nor is it a simple retelling of what happened on Polymarket and Kalshi.
We are really concerned about three things:
• Which events have odds changes that don't seem to be driven by sentiment or publicly available information?
• Are there any addresses that consistently place large bets "before the outcome" and have an unusually high historical hit rate?
Do these actions point to some "known but undisclosed" fact?
Through analysis:
• Predicting the odds of topics and options in the market
• The on-chain address of the bettor and its associated behavior
Similar betting patterns in historical events
Do one thing: treat the prediction market as a "secret stress tester," not a ballot box.
Our current focus areas are as follows:
• Macroeconomic policy trends and geopolitical factors that can influence capital markets
AI Industry: Product Launch Dates, Mergers and Acquisitions, Key Personnel Changes
• Crypto Industry: TGE, Regulation, Governance Outcomes, Major Protocol Changes
The Future of the Content Industry:
The real challenge of prediction markets is not accuracy, but that they are undermining a long-standing, tacitly accepted order within the content industry and regulation: only information that is allowed to be spoken becomes "public knowledge." When everything can be bet, secrets are no longer merely constrained by institutions, professional ethics, or news censorship, but must continuously contend with price discovery mechanisms.
In milder scenarios, this means that the ending of a series, award winners, and business decisions will be known to the market in advance; in extreme scenarios, it even touches on war and geopolitical conflicts: people can learn about "military intelligence" level information through the betting of soldiers on the front lines, directly influencing the course of the war. When the outcome is already in the hands of a few, and the market allows betting around the outcome, the price itself can become an undeniable signal of reality.
My first sense of awe for the financial industry came from a story I read in college. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, had helped McDonald's hedge chicken futures trading in its early years. In the United States, large restaurant chains almost always hedge their core raw materials with futures contracts to protect against drastic price fluctuations and ensure that consumers can always enjoy McDonald's Chicken McNuggets of consistent quality and at controllable prices. What impressed me about this wasn't Dalio's later achievements, but rather my first clear realization that the financial markets were never created for trading itself, but to make the real world function more stably and predictably.
The futures market helps people hedge against commodity price risks, while the stock market helps companies that are valuable to society to raise funds and develop more efficiently. In this process, the participation of traders and speculators provides liquidity, farmers lock in future income in advance, and companies obtain a stable cost structure. Although market participants get what they need, the whole system is a long-term positive EV system.
This forces us to return to a more fundamental question: given the massive speculative liquidity of the Polymarket, is it possible to channel it towards areas that truly generate positive EV? If an event, once it occurs, will have a significant impact on an individual's life, assets, or decisions, is it possible to leverage the liquidity of the predictive market, or even evolve a "event insurance" product using multiple order book combinations, similar to the "flight delay insurance" we have in our lives today? While it cannot compensate for the losses caused by flight delays, it can provide people with some psychological comfort.
Prediction markets aren't about challenging a particular media outlet; they're about posing a larger question: when the world is being bet on, who still has the power to decide "what can be known?" and "when can it be known?" We will continue exploring this path. Furthermore, the BlockBeats prediction market analysis team has been established. If you share a passion for content and are curious about prediction markets, you are welcome to join us. (Please send your resume to contact@theblockbeats.org or HR Telegram @Jhy10vewh0 with the note "Prediction Markets".) We also welcome startups in prediction markets and AI to discuss with us. BlockBeats will do its best to provide outstanding startups with maximum exposure. Contact us at contact@theblockbeats.org
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