According to the founder of the market sentiment analysis platform Santiment – Maxim Balashevich, the current crypto market has not yet shown a sufficient level of fear on social media to confirm a true bottom. He believes that Bitcoin still has the potential to continue adjusting, even dropping to the $75,000 range before forming a sustainable bottom.

The Crowd's Sentiment Is Still Too Optimistic

Balashevich emphasizes that in previous cycles, market bottoms typically only occur when the crowd is completely desperate, confidence is shattered, and recovery expectations are almost non-existent. However, he still observes excessive optimism among social media and retail investor communities, with the belief that the downtrend will soon come to an end.

According to him, comments like 'bears are trapped', or expectations that the market will continue to rise immediately after negative macro news, are not signs of a true market bottom.

If Bitcoin drops from the current price of around $88,350 to $75,000, this corresponds to a correction of about 14.77%. However, Balashevich believes this could become a very good trading opportunity for patient traders with a clear strategy.

Bank of Japan and Macro Pressure

A notable macro factor is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years. Historically, BOJ's monetary tightening periods have been associated with significant corrections in Bitcoin, sometimes reaching up to 20%.

However, Balashevich argues that deep drops like this often create the conditions for a true bottom to form, rather than shallow corrections when market sentiment still expects rising prices.

Is the Market Indicator Contradictory?

Interestingly, many sentiment indicators are contradicting Balashevich's cautious stance. Specifically:

  • The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been in the Extreme Fear zone since December 14, with a score of 20 points on Sunday – reflecting the high level of market concern.

  • The Altcoin Season Index shows the state of Bitcoin Season, with a score of 17/100, implying that money is flowing out of altcoins and back to Bitcoin – a typical defensive sign.

However, according to Balashevich, these quantitative indicators do not fully reflect the true emotions of the crowd, especially on social media, where he still sees a prevailing expectation of rising prices.

Contrarian Views from Major Institutions

From a long-term perspective, Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Research Director at Fidelity, believes Bitcoin could 'rest' in 2026, with a potential drop to around $65,000. Meanwhile, Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, believes that 2026 will continue to be a positive year for Bitcoin. This difference indicates that the market is still in a state of disagreement, a characteristic that often appears before major fluctuations.

Conclusion

Maxim Balashevich's analysis highlights a key point: the market bottom is not only determined by price but also by sentiment. When the crowd still holds hope and optimism, the possibility of another deep drop to 'shake off' sentiment is entirely possible.

If Bitcoin actually corrects to the $75,000 region, it may not be a disaster, but a necessary step for the market to reach true capitulation, thus laying a stronger foundation for the next growth cycle.