Hourly timeframe. I think what’s most worth watching in the market right now isn’t the 62,400—nor is it that the panic is over.
📉 The move where BTC pulled back from 58,500 to 62,000—24 hours, 5.2%. Does it look like the rebound is over? I don’t think so.
For the previous three straight days, ETF net outflows at a pace of 200–300 million per day, and the market didn’t really drop. Instead, after yesterday’s outflow of 296 million and BTC still holding above 62,000, the market structure quietly changed.
I think the real shift isn’t about how much it’s risen, but that the funding rate hasn’t moved, borrowing rates are somewhat more favorable (more long-biased), and total open interest at 32.5B isn’t exactly euphoric. The market absorbed this kind of selling pressure with low sentiment, yet hardly anyone was calling for a bull run.
ETH is even stronger today—up 7.8% in a single push to just over 1,700. At this level, it’s not “alpha”; it’s playing beta catch-up. It’s because earlier declines were deeper, and the alts couldn’t hold up well—so ETH has taken over.
My view is: at this point, chasing longs feels uncomfortable, but shorting is also counter-trend.
Wait for a pullback toward around 61,100, and then judge based on how it gets absorbed. Don’t think too much before it’s tested.
📉 The move where BTC pulled back from 58,500 to 62,000—24 hours, 5.2%. Does it look like the rebound is over? I don’t think so.
For the previous three straight days, ETF net outflows at a pace of 200–300 million per day, and the market didn’t really drop. Instead, after yesterday’s outflow of 296 million and BTC still holding above 62,000, the market structure quietly changed.
I think the real shift isn’t about how much it’s risen, but that the funding rate hasn’t moved, borrowing rates are somewhat more favorable (more long-biased), and total open interest at 32.5B isn’t exactly euphoric. The market absorbed this kind of selling pressure with low sentiment, yet hardly anyone was calling for a bull run.
ETH is even stronger today—up 7.8% in a single push to just over 1,700. At this level, it’s not “alpha”; it’s playing beta catch-up. It’s because earlier declines were deeper, and the alts couldn’t hold up well—so ETH has taken over.
My view is: at this point, chasing longs feels uncomfortable, but shorting is also counter-trend.
Wait for a pullback toward around 61,100, and then judge based on how it gets absorbed. Don’t think too much before it’s tested.