Bitcoin ($BTC) will face an extremely important derivatives event on December 26, 2025 — Bitcoin options contracts worth approximately $23.8 billion will expire simultaneously. This scale not only breaks the annual record but is also one of the most significant volatility triggers in the entire cryptocurrency market at year-end.
This expiration event covers quarterly options, annual options, and a large number of institutional-level structured products, indicating deep participation from ETF hedging desks, BTC inventory management companies, and large institutional funds in the market.
The expiration of options itself will not directly determine direction, but it will restructure risk exposure (risk repricing) and release hedging pressure, thereby having a significant impact on the price trend of BTC.
Institutions and market makers typically buy and sell in the spot and futures markets to hedge their open option positions. As the expiration date approaches, these hedging activities intensify, leading to price movements:
✅ Severe fluctuations with wicks
✅ False breakouts
✅ Sideways fluctuations
✅ Two-way stop loss hunting
Such "strange" price movements are especially common before large expirations.
📍 Key price levels and the "max pain" theory
In this expiration event, a large number of open contracts are concentrated around several key strike prices:
🔹 Around 85,000 USD — Large accumulation of put options
🔹 Over 100,000 USD — Large accumulation of call options
🔹 96,000 USD — Max pain (most contracts incur the largest losses at this price)
The "max pain price" is the point where option buyers incur the most overall losses and option sellers face the least pressure. Historically, prices tend to fluctuate around the max pain area before expiration, as market makers and hedgers perform hedging operations in that area.
📌 This does not mean BTC will necessarily reach 96,000 USD, but it has indeed become an important liquidity magnet and psychological barrier.
🔄 Common behaviors before and after expiration
Before expiration:
🟠 Market fluctuations are unclear
🟠 A large number of stop losses are triggered
🟠 Breakouts often lack follow-through
After expiration:
🟢 Hedging pressure decreases
🟢 Liquidity reorganization
🟢 Price trends are clearer
Therefore, December 26 will become a reset point for the BTC market, and it is essential to manage risks and plan cautiously before this date.
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🔎 Another perspective: Macro and derivatives linkage
In addition to the impact of internal derivatives, external macro factors (such as interest rate expectations, ETF fund flows, and global market risk appetite) will also amplify price reactions. Therefore, it is reasonable to view volatility solely from the options data, but it should be complemented with macro sentiment to enhance your trading perspective.
