Last week's massive net outflow of BTC and ETH ETFs is closely related to changes in the macroeconomic environment. The recent hawkish signals released by the Federal Reserve have strengthened the market's expectations for sustained high interest rates, becoming the core macro factor suppressing cryptocurrency asset valuations and driving capital withdrawal. From a data correlation perspective, the capital flow of crypto ETFs is highly synchronized with the adjustment pace of global risk assets, highlighting the dominant impact of macro liquidity on the crypto market.
Specifically, recent statements from hawkish Federal Reserve officials have been frequent. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester clearly stated that there is no need to adjust interest rates in the coming months, and New York Fed President John Williams also signaled a pause in rate cuts. This series of statements has completely extinguished the market's fantasies of a shift towards easing monetary policy in the short term, leading to a tightening of liquidity expectations in the global financial markets. For high-risk, high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies, a high-interest-rate environment means rising funding costs, decreasing valuation attractiveness, and institutions naturally choose to reduce exposure, turning to cash or low-risk assets.
It is worth noting that BTC's performance is increasingly resembling that of Nasdaq derivatives. When the tech sector declines due to high interest rate expectations, BTC often experiences a larger drop. This correlation makes BTC and ETH ETFs important tools for institutions to adjust their exposure to risk assets. When macro expectations turn negative, it becomes an inevitable choice for funds to withdraw quickly through ETFs. In contrast, the inflow into SOL and XRP ETFs is more a result of local funding behavior under relative valuation advantages, making it difficult to escape the overall constraints of the macro environment.@男神说币 #加密市场观察 $BTC
