The market never lacks opportunities, but it lacks the eyes to patiently wait for them. While most people are still sound asleep, the market has quietly started.
Under the morning sunlight, Bitcoin bulls are quietly gathering strength. After last week's surge to $94,500, the market did not retreat significantly as the bears expected, but instead digested profit-taking in a healthier manner, exchanging time for space in a consolidation pattern.
This morning, I decisively implemented a low-long strategy, positioning long orders at $88,366 and ultimately exiting at $89,486, successfully capturing a profit space of 1,120 points. This is not a coincidence, but based on a comprehensive analysis of the market's deeper structure.
Multi-cycle analysis reveals the truth of the market
When you compare the daily chart, 4-hour chart, and hourly chart together, a bullish picture gradually unfolds.
On the daily level, Bitcoin has shown a strong pattern of three consecutive upward days, with the price firmly standing above the key support area. This pattern is not coincidental, but rather the result of bulls gradually accumulating. The price has steadily warmed up based on the continuous upward trend, and it has now come to just below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, which means that once the middle band resistance is broken, the upward space will be fully opened.
The trend on the 4-hour chart is more intriguing: each pullback becomes a good entry opportunity, indicating that bulls firmly hold the market's dominant position. This 'step-like rise' is a typical feature of a healthy bull market, rather than an unsustainable vertical surge.
The hourly level shows the delicate operations of bulls: there has been no opportunity for bears to exert power, and the market has always been dominated by upward movement. This strong pattern is evident, but it requires keen observation to detect in a timely manner.
My analysis framework: triangulation of technical, sentiment, and on-chain data
My method of judging trends never relies on a single indicator, but rather on the triangulation of technical analysis, market sentiment, and on-chain data.
In technical analysis, I pay particular attention to the arrangement of moving averages. When the short-term moving average crosses above the long-term moving average to form a 'golden cross', it is usually seen as a signal for the start of a bull market. Currently, this pattern is forming.
In terms of market sentiment, I've noticed an interesting phenomenon: despite steady price increases, the frenzy on social media is relatively moderate. This is actually a healthy signal, indicating that the market has not yet entered an irrational exuberance phase. According to sentiment analysis theory, when investor sentiment is optimistic but not overly euphoric, demand increases, driving prices up.
On-chain data provides another layer of validation: a large amount of BTC continuously flowing out of exchanges indicates that investors tend to hold long-term rather than sell short-term. A decrease in supply is a bullish signal.
Risk warning and humorous perspective
Of course, the market is always full of uncertainty. Even the most perfect analysis framework requires strict risk management to safeguard it. My principle is: never bet on chips you cannot afford to lose; position management is the first rule of survival.
Interestingly, the cryptocurrency market sometimes behaves like my coffee machine, functioning normally most of the time but occasionally throwing a fit for no reason. When the market exhibits such emotions, the best strategy is often to wait and see rather than force a trade.
Conclusion and interaction
The current rhythm of the Bitcoin market is relatively strong, and it is advisable to continue maintaining a low long strategy in operations. Going with the trend allows for steady control. The market will always present the next opportunity; the key is whether you are prepared.
Dear readers, how do you judge market trends? Do you have your own unique analysis framework? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments so we can grow together on the trading journey!
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