Solana (SOL) is currently trading around $126 and is at a critical technical juncture.

Important Technical Levels:

Critical Support: $123 - $128 range. A monthly close below this level increases the risk of the price retreating to the $78 - $86 range.

Important Resistance: $132 - $145 range. If exceeded, it may pave the way for a stronger upward movement.

**Fundamental Analysis and Expectations**:

* **Strengths**: The upcoming **Alpenglow** upgrade is strengthening the infrastructure and institutional adoptions, like Visa, are increasing. The volume of tokenized assets (RWA) on the platform has exceeded **$2.65 billion**.

* **2026 Expectations**: A recovery is expected in the second half of the year due to the impact of network upgrades. Most analysts set their target in the **$197 - $272** range, with an average estimate around **$235**.

* **Key Risks**: Regulatory uncertainties like the SEC's delays in ETF applications, the likelihood of the network losing critical technical support, and intense competition from other blockchains.

**Conclusion**: SOL has strong fundamentals but is in a technically sensitive position. Whether the **$123** support holds will be the most important factor determining the short-term direction.