IOSG Founder: 2025 is actually the "worst year" for Bitcoin, but it's a major turnover, and the first half of 2026 may explode

The cryptocurrency market appears bleak in 2025, with Bitcoin dropping 5.4% for the year, after a high of $126k, it is in a state of high volatility. ETH and altcoins are faring even worse, generally halving in value. However, IOSG founder Jocy pointed out sharply: this is not a market peak, but a historic turnover — retail investors are selling off, and institutions are taking over, with control shifting from speculative small investors to professional large players.

Core data is impressive: long-term holders sold a total of 1.4 million BTC (over $120 billion) in three waves this year, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of $23 billion, small transactions plummeting by 66%, and large transactions rising by 59%. Yet the price hasn’t collapsed, thanks to institutions aggressively buying: net inflow to BTC ETFs reached $25 billion, AUM exceeded $100 billion, with BlackRock dominating; publicly listed companies hoarded 1.68 million coins, and the institutional holdings ratio soared to 24%.

After Trump took office, pro-crypto policies emerged frequently: strategic reserves of 200,000 BTC, a stablecoin framework, SEC leadership changes, which have completely ignited institutional confidence. Jocy candidly stated that 2025 is the "year for institutional accumulation", with volatility narrowing and the central range rising, replacing the old cycle of boom and bust. Traditional assets like gold and silver have surged, while crypto is adjusting, merely to clear out retail investor bubbles. Risks remain: Federal Reserve tightening, strong dollar, uncertainties in mid-term elections, and regulatory delays. But the positives are more powerful: several institutions target prices between $150,000 and $250,000, with a policy honeymoon period expected in the first half of 2026.

In summary, this turnover marks the beginning of a new cycle, shifting from speculation to allocation, from short-term gamblers to long-term players. The "worst" year of 2025 is actually paving the way for the bull market in 2026 — the direction is clear, patience is needed for the honeymoon explosion, with a target starting from $120,000 to $150,000. Don’t panic, institutions are already on board, and we just need to catch up.