Precious metals surge, crypto oscillates: Will the Bitcoin Christmas rally come back?
As the end of the year approaches, the market is increasingly cautious, with gold, silver, and platinum hitting historic highs. Gold has directly breached the $3,400 mark, with an annual increase of over 66%. Silver has stabilized at $34, and platinum has also surpassed $2,000. Goldman Sachs has directly predicted gold to reach $4,900 next year, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical chaos, and a weakening dollar.
While traditional assets are thriving, the crypto side is much quieter. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $88,000, surprisingly down about 5% for the year. Optimistic bulls believe there will be a "holiday rally" before Christmas, potentially breaking through $98k and even reaching $100k, citing institutional ETF inflows and Trump’s pro-crypto policies; bears, on the other hand, warn of a pullback to $70-75k, with even a bear market dragging into 2026.
The market's Fear and Greed Index is only at 24, indicating pure fear mode, with $172 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, showing fierce competition between bulls and bears. Ethereum is more stable, holding the $3,000 level, with whales recently ramping up their holdings and on-chain data looking bright. If it breaks upward, we could see a range of $3,200-4,200; if it drops, it would retest $2,700-2,800. Compared to Bitcoin's indecision, ETH seems to have greater rebound potential. The altcoin market is buzzing, with Aave suddenly plummeting due to large holders selling off, leading to a community proposal to transfer assets.
The "alt season" is still nowhere in sight and needs new narratives to drive it, such as the Solana ecosystem and Ethena. ETF data is also diverging: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows of hundreds of millions, while Solana and XRP have seen slight inflows. Overall, the market is at a crossroads: macroeconomic factors favor safe-haven assets, while crypto is primarily experiencing short-term fluctuations. Christmas rally? It’s possible, but don’t set your hopes too high—technical levels, options expirations, and U.S. GDP data all need to be monitored. Risk is on you, and happy holidays first. #比特币流动性 #ETH走势分析 $BNB
