The beginning of 2026 is predicted to be the most decisive period for the crypto market. Several major agendas will take place, from MicroStrategy contracts to Federal Reserve meetings. This article summarizes four main catalysts along with their impacts, plus additional references from research reports and global conferences.
🔑 Four Main Agendas
1. Expiration of MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Contract (December 31, 2025)
- Overview: MicroStrategy (MSTR) holds approximately 650,000 BTC (≈$57 billion). The Polymarket prediction contract worth $220 million will expire.
- Risk: If MSTR sells, the market may panic because they are the largest corporate BTC holders.
- Meaning:
- Yes → Potential price collapse and systemic risk.
- No → Institutional trust in Bitcoin strengthens.
2. US CPI Data Release (January 13, 2026)
- Overview: CPI is a key inflation indicator. The market assesses a 77% chance of rates remaining unchanged.
- Risk: CPI higher → Fed delays interest rate cuts → pressure on risky assets.
- Meaning:
- Low CPI → Loose liquidity, bullish for crypto.
- High CPI → Dollar strengthens, crypto weakens.
3. MSCI DAT Classification Decision (January 15, 2026)
- Overview: MSCI is weighing whether Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies like MSTR are categorized as “fund-like.”
- Risk: If classified → potential passive outflows of $2.8–$8.8 billion.
- Meaning:
- Issued → Weakens DAT's ability to buy BTC.
- Staying in → DAT model strengthens, BTC demand continues.
4. Federal Reserve Meeting (January 28, 2026)
- Overview: First Fed meeting in 2026. The majority of members are still hawkish.
- Risk: Interest rates remain high → BTC loses appeal as a risky asset.
- Meaning:
- Hawkish → Pressure on crypto.
- Dovish → Institutional capital may return.
📊 Sentiment Indicator
- BTC–S&P 500 correlation (7 days): 0.68 → high contagion risk.
- Open Interest: $746 billion → extreme leverage.
- Fear Index: 29 → market in fear condition (neutral–bearish).
🌍 Additional Reference Crypto Agenda 2026
- Grayscale Digital Asset Outlook 2026 → highlights real asset tokenization, global regulation, and staking as investment standards.
- CoinDesk & Pantera Capital → trends in RWA tokenization, AI-based security, and crypto IPO wave.
- Fundstrat vs Tom Lee → differing views: sharp correction vs major rally in 2026.
- Global Conferences → Consensus Hong Kong, ETHDenver, TOKEN2049 Dubai, Paris Blockchain Week, BTC Prague, Eurocrypt Rome.
- Indonesia → OJK regulations, transition from Bappebti, increasing investor literacy.
🌀 Conclusion
Early 2026 is a “tsunami” phase for crypto:
- First Wave: MSTR contract expiration (December 31).
- Second Wave: CPI (January 13) & MSCI (January 15).
- Third Wave: Fed (January 28).
👉 Community strategy: hedging, leverage management, and daily macro monitoring.
The narrative throughout the year will continue to be shaped by global regulations, real asset tokenization, and international conferences.
