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Central banks around the world continued to actively increase gold reserves: in the third quarter of 2025, the volume of purchases grew by 28% and reached 220 tons. This was a continuation of the 15-year trend of net purchases, against which the price of gold has risen by about 50% since the beginning of the year and reached historic highs.
According to the World Gold Council, the total volume of purchases in the first three quarters of 2025 amounted to 634 tons. Although the figure slightly lags behind similar periods in the last three years, it significantly exceeds the average level of 400–500 tons typical for the period before 2022.
Most purchases remain hidden.
Experts are concerned about the growing gap between official statistics and actual purchase volumes. In the third quarter of 2025, about 66% of demand from central banks was not reflected in IMF reports. This trend has intensified since 2022 against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions.
Analysts believe that hidden purchases are mainly made by states seeking to reduce dependence on the dollar and diversify reserves. This approach allows them to avoid unnecessary attention from international markets and political pressure.
China is accumulating reserves faster than statistics show.
The People's Bank of China reported the purchase of 5 tons of gold in the third quarter of 2025, increasing official reserves to 2,303 tons. This is already the 11th month in a row that the regulator has recorded stock growth.
However, analysts at Money Metals led by Jan Nieuwenhuis believe that China's actual reserves may exceed 5,000 tons — more than double the official figures. According to their estimates, only in 2024 did China secretly acquire about 570 tons of gold. The conclusions are based on the analysis of trade flows, data from mining companies, and insider information from the precious metals market.
Poland is the leader in European purchases.
In Europe, Poland is the most active buyer of gold: in the first half of 2025, the country added 67.2 tons. The National Bank of Poland also raised the target share of gold in reserves from 20% to 30%, indicating a long-term accumulation strategy.
Among other large buyers are Azerbaijan (34.5 tons) and Kazakhstan (22.1 tons). In the third quarter, activity was also shown by Brazil, which purchased 15 tons for the first time since 2021, and Turkey, which increased reserves by 7 tons.
Geopolitics as a key driver of demand.
The growing interest in gold is explained by several factors:
• striving to diversify reserves and reduce dependence on the dollar;
• desire to protect against sanction risks, as gold cannot be blocked through SWIFT;
• decreasing interest of central banks in U.S. Treasury bonds — since March 2025, they have become net sellers for the first time since 1996.
The impact on gold prices and forecasts.
Strong institutional demand supported the rapid growth in the value of gold: since the beginning of 2025, the price has increased by 63% and exceeded $4,000 per ounce. In October, quotes briefly reached $4,381.
Analysts expect that in 2026 gold may be priced in the range of $3,950–5,300, considering the ongoing structural demand. According to Deutsche Bank, the share of gold in central bank reserves reached 24% in the second quarter of 2025 — the highest since the 1990s.
Over the past three years, central banks have acquired more than 3,200 tons of gold — twice as much as in the previous decade. This indicates profound changes in the global financial system and a growing search for alternatives to the dollar model.
