The core driving logic of the current cryptocurrency market still revolves around global central bank policies. Last night, the U.S. December non-farm payroll data landed softly, with the number of new jobs slightly below expectations, which neither strengthened inflation concerns nor broke the market's fundamental expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts next year, originally creating a warmer environment for risk assets. However, today, Federal Reserve official Harker released hawkish signals, clearly stating that "no adjustment to interest rates is needed before spring," directly suppressing the market's easing expectations.

Meanwhile, the ripple effects of the Bank of Japan's unexpected interest rate hike have not yet settled, leading to a retreat in global risk aversion preferences, further limiting the upward momentum of cryptocurrencies. It is noteworthy that although the Federal Reserve implemented its third interest rate cut of the year in December, the subsequent hawkish guidance has led to a divergence in the market's expectations for the pace of rate cuts. This contradiction between "easing landing and hawkish guidance" makes it difficult for Bitcoin and Ethereum to form a clear trend, instead entering a phase of consolidation. In terms of cross-market linkage, Bitcoin has a correlation of 36% with the S&P 500, while Ethereum is at 38%. The volatility of traditional stock markets also indirectly influences the cryptocurrency market through emotional transmission.

From the 1-hour candlestick perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a key consolidation range of $88,800-$89,200. After peaking at $89,196.23 in the morning, it failed to hold, indicating strong selling pressure in the $89,150-$89,200 range. This area is also a dual resistance zone of the daily baseline and the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level. The support below focuses on the $88,800-$88,900 range, which is the core support area of the recent consolidation platform. If effectively lost, it may further test around $88,500.

Ethereum is relatively strong, successfully holding above the key psychological level of $3,020, currently consolidating in the $3,020-$3,030 range. From a technical perspective, the short-term resistance above is located in the $3,030-$3,040 area, which is the overlap of the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern and the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level, and is also the resistance zone of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), making it difficult to break through. The support below focuses on the vicinity of $3,020, where there is considerable buying support. If lost, it may further test the key support zone of $3,000.