The latest on-chain data reveals that the cost fortress of institutions such as ETFs is not the rumored 80,000 to 90,000, but is concentrated between 65,000 and 70,000. Below this area, there is now an abyss.
When you are still being tormented by short-term fluctuations, the real giants have already used real money to draw their "bottom line" and "defensive line" on the candlestick chart. Once this trump card is revealed, all the noise in the market becomes clear. Today, we will penetrate the price fog and directly strike at the most fundamental force determining the future direction of Bitcoin—the cost structure of institutional holdings.
01 Cost fortress: $65,000 to $70,000, the 'Maginot Line' of institutions.
Market consensus is being disrupted. Many believe that institutional costs are very high, but the latest on-chain data shows that the early giants entering the market through ETFs and custodial wallets have their core cost basis anchored around $65,000.
In-depth analysis of capital distribution reveals an astonishing structure:
Core fortress area ($65,000 - $70,000): Over 15% of ETF funds are densely accumulated here, which is the 'comfort zone' for early entrants. They hold a profit cushion of 30%-40% and remain unmoved despite multiple market corrections. Once the price falls into this range, it means they return to the cost line, triggering the strongest institutional buying defense.
Solid support zone ($60,000 - $65,000): About 11% of the funds serve as the second tier. These two ranges together constitute the 'foundation' of institutional positions.
Vacuum weak zone ($75,000 - $85,000): In sharp contrast, within this $10,000 range from $75,000 to $85,000, the fund proportion is less than 3%. This means that once the price breaks below $85,000 from a high, there will be a lack of effective buy support below, and the speed of decline may sharply accelerate due to liquidity vacuum.
This is the true skeleton of the market. It is not a smooth curve but rather 'hills' and 'depressions' formed by massive capital accumulation.
02 Profit and loss perspective: The anxiety of $63 billion 'high ground capital.'
The current market's more fatal hidden dangers lie in the inverted profit and loss structure.
Statistics show that the total cost of positions currently in floating loss amounts to about $63 billion, while the cost of profitable positions is only around $59 billion. Simply put, later investors have contributed more money chasing highs than early investors did when laying out at the bottom.
Notably, the massive funds that surged in October 2024 when hitting historical highs, most of which have a cost above $100,000, are now deep in losses. This batch of 'high ground capital' is extremely anxious: they face internal performance pressure while also dealing with potential redemption waves from high-buy clients. This fragile profit-and-loss structure means that every market rally will exacerbate the selling impulse of these holders.
03 New narrative junction: DeUSD, the 'next station fuel' for institutional layout.
Understanding this cost structure allows you to see the next key junction: Decentralized USD.
Traditional institutions buying Bitcoin through ETFs are laying out their exposure to 'digital gold.' DeUSD (Decentralized USD) represents the 'blood' and 'fuel' of future global digital currency liquidity. Once institutions complete their value storage layout in Bitcoin, their natural next strategic goal is to control the settlement and liquidity network of the future digital world.
It is foreseeable that the future core asset allocation of large institutions will be a combination of 'Bitcoin (value storage) + DeUSD (liquidity tool).' The current game of Bitcoin within the cost range is precisely to clear the battlefield and accumulate funds for this larger layout. Once the market stabilizes in the core cost zone, some funds that have withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs and are waiting on the sidelines may flow into building the core assets of the DeUSD ecosystem, seeking the next growth pole.
04 Key price level deduction: Three lines determine the universe.
Based on the above analysis, the future script may unfold around three key price levels:
$80,000: The lifeline of overall sentiment. This is one of the average cost lines in the current market. Once it falls below, it means that over $100 billion of institutional positions will turn entirely into losses, and market sentiment and public opinion may plummet.
$75,000 - $85,000: Acceleration zone. Since this range is a 'funding vacuum zone,' whether it breaks upward or downward, the price movement may accelerate significantly due to low resistance.
$65,000 - $70,000: Ultimate structural support. This is the institutional cost fortress, and it is their 'Normandy' that must be defended. Once the price reaches here, it will encounter the most solid buying, likely forming a phase bottom for this cycle.
05 Your bottom-fishing map: Follow the whales, not panic.
For investors, this provides a clear 'bottom-fishing map':
Give up the illusion: Do not attempt to guess the bottom in the vacuum zone (such as around $80,000), where there is not enough institutional buy support.
Focus on the fortress: Concentrate the main attention and funds in the core cost area around $65,000 to $70,000. When the market panics and drives the price down to this area, that is when you should consider cautiously laying out in batches.
Looking to the future: While focusing on the cost game of Bitcoin, it is essential to study and pay attention to the protocols and assets in the DeUSD track that have the potential to become future liquidity hubs. The switch by institutions may happen faster than you think.
Remember, in this market, your personal judgment is insignificant in the face of collective institutional costs. Do not oppose their defense line but take their defense line as your most important reference coordinate for action. When the tide recedes, you will only then know who is swimming naked; and when the price touches the fortress, you will know who is controlling the ocean.
