Family, as the Bitcoin correction intensifies towards the end of 2025, there has been a fierce clash of predictions among institutions, resembling a 'battle of the gods.' On one side, Fundstrat analysts assert that Bitcoin may drop to $60,000-$65,000 in the first half of 2026; on the other side, Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer strongly supports the crypto ETF, predicting that capital inflows next year will hit record highs, driving the market upward. Which side should we believe?
First, let's look at the bearish logic: Fundstrat believes that the current market needs to digest multiple risks such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations and leverage withdrawals, and there is a high probability of a significant decline in the first half of the year. From a technical perspective, if the support level of $70,000-$72,000 is lost, the next strong support level will be around the realized price of $56,000, which means the decline from the historical high could reach 55%. Furthermore, the funding rate for perpetual futures has dropped to its lowest level since December 2023, reflecting a substantial decrease in market bullish sentiment.
Looking at the bullish viewpoint: Matt Hougan from Bitwise believes that the recent market slump is only temporary, and with major brokerages entering the market to set up crypto ETFs, record capital inflows are expected in 2026. At the same time, crypto legislation is likely to make breakthroughs in 2026, and a clear regulatory framework will bring long-term benefits to the industry. Investment banks like Citigroup have also stated that although they have lowered the target prices for some crypto stocks, they still have a long-term optimistic view on the industry's prospects, and targets like Circle and Coinbase still have considerable room for growth.
In fact, the viewpoints of both sides are not entirely contradictory; the core is the different emphasis on short-term risks and long-term value. For ordinary investors, there is no need to get caught up in precisely predicting price points, but rather to develop corresponding strategies based on their own risk tolerance: maintain a defensive stance in the short term, while in the long term, they can focus on opportunities for quality targets.
