Dear family, for a long time, many people have regarded Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle as the 'bible' for judging market trends, believing that a bull market is inevitable after a halving. However, the current market trend seems to be breaking this established perception. CryptoQuant's analysis shows that Bitcoin's cyclical behavior is primarily governed by the expansion and contraction of demand growth, rather than the halving events themselves. Does this mean the four-year cycle is no longer valid?
Looking back at this round of market trends, Bitcoin's three major upward waves since 2023 have been driven by the launch of the U.S. spot ETF, the results of the U.S. presidential election, and the Bitcoin treasury company bubble, with the core driving force being demand growth. Since early October 2025, demand growth has been below trend levels, which is also the core reason for the current pullback. From this perspective, demand indeed seems to determine market trends more than the halving cycle.
Looking at historical data, the bear markets of 2018 and 2022 both occurred after halving, but the core reason was the exhaustion of demand, with a large number of investors exiting and insufficient market liquidity. In contrast, the bull market of 2020-2021 was driven not only by the halving factor but more importantly by the massive influx of institutional funds that led to a surge in demand. This indicates that halving is just one of the factors influencing the market, not a decisive one.
For investors, rather than getting entangled in whether the four-year cycle has failed, it is better to focus on changes on the demand side: the inflow of funds into crypto ETFs, the layout trends of traditional financial institutions, and the willingness of ordinary investors to enter the market. These factors are the key to determining the future direction of the market. Currently, demand growth has slowed, so we should remain cautious; when demand rises again, it will not be too late to take advantage of the trend.
The market is always changing, and there are no unchanging rules. Only by closely following the changes in the core driving forces of the market and flexibly adjusting strategies can one stand firm in a complex market environment.@男神说币 #加密市场观察 $BTC
