Driven by worsening geopolitical tensions and market expectations that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates next year, on Monday, both gold and silver prices reached historical highs.
Spot gold prices are approaching $4400, refreshing historical highs again; silver once rose over 2%, refreshing historical highs above $69; platinum has broken $2000/ounce for the first time since 2008, with a cumulative increase of over 120% this year.
Currently, traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2026. Although President Trump has consistently advocated for significant rate cuts, a series of economic data released last week failed to provide clearer guidance for the outlook. For gold and silver, which do not pay interest, loose monetary policy is undoubtedly a major benefit.
Geopolitical tensions have also enhanced the safe-haven appeal of precious metals. The U.S. has intensified its oil blockade against Venezuela, increasing pressure on the Maduro government, while Ukraine has struck a tanker from Russia's 'shadow fleet' in the Mediterranean for the first time, and the situation in the Middle East has also begun to tense.
The precious metals market is ending a historically significant year, with both gold and silver set to record the largest annual gains since 1979. Silver prices have more than doubled, and gold prices have surged by about two-thirds, primarily due to increased purchases by central banks and inflows into gold ETFs.
According to data compiled by institutions, gold ETFs have seen inflows for five consecutive weeks. The World Gold Council's data shows that, except for May, the total holdings of these funds have been increasing every month this year. Meanwhile, silver has been boosted in recent weeks by a surge in demand and tight supply from major trading centers.
Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and Samantha Dart stated in a report last weekend that they expect gold to rise further next year, setting a base scenario of $4,900 per ounce, with upside risks. They noted that ETF investors have begun to compete with central banks for the limited supply of gold.
In addition to being optimistic about gold and silver, some large banks and industry experts believe that the relatively undervalued platinum group metals will ultimately perform the best.
So far this year, platinum prices have risen by 120%. As signs of tightening have emerged in the London market, banks have been storing platinum in the U.S. to avoid tariff risks, leading to a significant increase in platinum prices. Additionally, the recent launch of platinum futures trading at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has further boosted market optimism about platinum.
TD Securities stated in its 2026 Commodity Outlook that lower interest rates, ongoing currency depreciation, supply-side dynamics, and diversification will drive gold prices to a new high of over $4,400 in the first half of the year, while silver prices may retreat to around $40. However, 2026 will be a year where platinum and palladium lead commodity prices.#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察
