The rotation of the FOMC voting members of the Federal Reserve starts in January 2026, with the voting rights of 4 regional Federal Reserve presidents changing, effective from the monetary policy meeting on January 27-28.

The voting committee's hawk-dove structure shifts from "three hawks and one dove" to "one dove and three hawks," but the fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and it is unlikely to play a decisive role in the subsequent interest rate path. The core of the game still lies with the Federal Reserve Chairman and the 7 board members.

Harmark has released a signal of "cautious spring policy," and the current market pricing for interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 is overly optimistic. From the perspective of the internal structure of the Federal Reserve, the probability of implementation is low.