The asset is in a state of extreme uncertainty, literally "hanging" on critical support. The difference from the previous value is minimal, indicating that the market is frozen in anticipation (most likely, of Bitcoin's reaction).
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✅ Technical analysis of Solana (SOL/USDT)
• Current price (Binance): $126.76
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📉 Market overview
The situation remains critical. The level of $126.00 is the "last frontier". The fact that the price is not bouncing energetically but is hovering right above this line is a sign of weakness among buyers. Typically, if support is strong, a quick V-shaped rebound occurs from it. Here, the price is seen "sticking" to the level, which often (but not always) precedes a downward breakout.
• Overall trend: Bearish, consolidation on the verge of breaking.
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📊 Technical indicators
Table based on price $126.76.
● RSI (14) :
33.5 🟢/⚪ Close to oversold (30). Sellers at their limit.
● MACD :
(12, 26) -2.05 🔴 Sell. Bearish trend in force, no reversal patterns.
● EMA (20) :
$137.20 🔴 Sell. Strong resistance above, downward trend.
● SMA (50) :
$136.00 🔴 Sell. Medium-term pressure.
● Stochastic:
17.0 🟢 Buy. Extreme oversold. High chance of a bounce.
● Momentum:
-8.20 🔴 Fall. Momentum of movement is still down.
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🔍 Detailed analysis
1. Dangerous proximity to $126.00
The price is only 0.6% above the liquidation stop-loss zone ($125.80 - $126.00). This is a high-risk zone. Any market noise can trigger a squeeze (sharp movement) downwards.
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2. Bullish argument (Stochastic)
The only light at the end of the tunnel for bulls is Stochastic (17.0). It is in the deep oversold zone. Technically, this requires a "release" of the indicator, meaning at least a small price movement upwards (to $129-$130), even if the global trend remains downward.
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3. Bearish argument (Moving Averages)
All averages are looking down. The gap between the price and 20 EMA ($137.20) is more than $10. This indicates that sellers fully control the market, and any rise will be used to open new short positions.
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💡 Movement scenarios
📉 Bearish (Breakout "Shelf"):
If the price drops below $125.80, buy stop orders will trigger.
• Target 1: $123.00 (local minimum).
• Target 2: $118.00 (next major area of interest).
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🚀 Bullish (Technical bounce):
If $126.00 holds in the next 4 hours:
Target: Return to $129.50 – $130.00. This is the maximum for a local correction.
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My observation recommendation: (not an axiom and call to action)
Watch Bitcoin. Solana currently has no strength of its own.
BTC < $87,500 ➔ SOL is flying to $118.
BTC > $88,500 ➔ SOL bounces to $130.
