Bitcoin has plummeted by 32%, yet institutional funds are quietly bottom-fishing, and the rules of the market game are being completely changed.
Every time there is a significant drop or sideways movement, pessimistic remarks about the 'end of the bull market' always emerge within the community. However, as a practitioner who has gone through multiple cycles, I feel that this time is completely different.
The market no longer experiences drastic fluctuations due to a single tweet, and the rise of Bitcoin has become 'restrained'—this precisely indicates that we may be bidding farewell to the wild era of cryptocurrency and welcoming the first truly 'rational bull market'.
01 Changes in market sentiment: Why does this bull market feel 'different'?
Recently, Bitcoin has fallen from a high of $126,000 to around $90,000, a decline of about 28%, which has caused some newcomers to panic. However, if you have experienced previous cycles, you will understand that such fluctuations are actually quite normal in the cryptocurrency market.
Since 2010, Bitcoin has experienced corrections of over 10% about 50 times, with an average decline of around 30%. So, why do many old players feel that something is 'off' this time?
The real answer lies in the fundamental change in market structure. In the past, bull markets were driven by retail-led FOMO sentiments, and it was not uncommon for Bitcoin to surge tenfold in a year. In this cycle, the year-on-year increase in Bitcoin is about 240%, which seems 'moderate' compared to before.
The driving force behind this change is that institutional funds are replacing the impulsive investments of retail investors through stable allocations via compliant channels. Funds from traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity will not rush in and out based on a celebrity's tweet; they pursue long-term strategic allocations rather than short-term speculation.
02 Three driving forces of the new bull market: from storytelling to value support
I believe that the driving forces of the future bull market will come from three concrete engines, rather than nebulous narratives.
1. Institutional funds become the 'ballast'
As of the third quarter of 2025, the total assets managed by global crypto ETFs have reached astonishing levels, with net inflows into the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF reaching $4.1 billion this month, and total net asset value approaching $150 billion.
More importantly, long-term capital such as Harvard University's endowment and the Wisconsin Investment Board has already begun allocating Bitcoin. Once this 'smart money' enters, it usually does not withdraw easily; they pursue diversified returns on asset allocation rather than overnight riches.
2. Stablecoins become the practical application bridge
A key piece of data that many overlook is that by August 2025, the on-chain transaction volume of stablecoins had surpassed $4 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 83%, accounting for 30% of the total transaction volume across the blockchain.
Stablecoins are becoming practical tools for cross-border payments and corporate settlements, rather than just trading mediums within exchanges. When traditional banks like JPMorgan start exploring issuing their own stablecoins, you know this is no longer a 'toy', but a real financial tool.
3. Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) provides new value anchors
RWA is becoming a bridge connecting traditional finance and DeFi by converting traditional assets such as bonds and real estate into digital tokens on the blockchain. As of September 2025, the total market value of global RWA is approximately $30.91 billion, and by 2030, this figure is expected to grow over 50 times to reach $4-30 trillion.
This means that the value support of blockchain will gradually shift from pure 'consensus' to a more robust model backed by actual assets.
03 The rules of the game have changed: value investing has finally taken root
I observed that during this cycle, even though Meme coins are occasionally active, it is difficult to see the kind of sustained frenzy from the past. The fundamental reason is that capital is flowing towards projects that can generate real value.
Looking at the data from 2025: Institutional investors allocated 67% of crypto capital to Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two mainstream assets. This highly concentrated allocation strategy reflects the core investment logic of institutions: they seek value storage functions similar to gold (BTC) or the infrastructure of decentralized computing (ETH), rather than participating in uncertain emerging projects.
At the same time, despite the total venture capital in the crypto space decreasing, the average single financing scale has surged, with funds clearly concentrating on later-stage projects. This indicates that capital is increasingly valuing a project's ability to execute and generate cash flow, rather than the grand plans in white papers.
This is essentially a replay of the logic of value investing in the crypto world: those projects that can solve real problems and generate real income will ultimately transcend the cycles.
04 How to respond to a rational bull market? My personal strategy sharing
In the face of fundamental changes in market structure, my own investment strategy is also adjusting:
Give up the fantasy of 'hundredfold coins' and focus on 'cash flow coins'
Instead of chasing the next meme coin, it's better to study which protocols can generate stable returns through fees and staking. DeFi lending protocols and real asset tokenization platforms may be more reliable than most altcoins.
Analyze on-chain data as 'financial reports'
Daily active addresses, protocol revenue, and TVL (total locked value) are the 'financial statements' of crypto projects. Learning to analyze this data is as important as traditional investors analyzing PE ratios.
Be patient and do not chase short-term hotspots
If, as some analyses predict, the second quarter of 2026 is the true starting point of the bull market, then we still have enough time for research and positioning. In a rational bull market, 'slow' is 'fast.'
05 Looking to the future: a new cycle driven by infrastructure
I believe the future of the crypto industry does not lie in creating more speculative tools, but in becoming the infrastructure for the next generation of the internet and finance.
Wall Street is integrating into this field with unprecedented depth. Morgan Stanley announced it will provide direct cryptocurrency trading services for retail clients, and JPMorgan is also exploring allowing institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral for loans.
The regulatory environment is also gradually becoming clearer. The SEC plans to launch an 'innovation exemption' rule in January 2026, providing clearer legal boundaries for crypto enterprises. This regulatory certainty will further lower the threshold for institutional entry.
What you feel is the 'last bull market' is actually the end of the familiar era of wild growth. But at the same time, a larger, more robust, and also more 'boring' bull market may just be beginning.
This path will not be as thrilling as before, but for those who truly want to delve deep into this industry, it may be the best of times. Follow Ake to learn more about first-hand information and precise points of cryptocurrency knowledge, becoming your navigation in the crypto space; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 $ETH
