The Christmas market is about to begin for $BTC , and in the English-speaking world, it is referred to as the 'Santa Claus rally.' This refers to the performance of the S&P 500 during the last week of the year, specifically the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 trading days of the following year. Historically, the Christmas rally has shown an upward trend 79% of the time, with the highest increase during this week being 7.4% and the highest decrease being 4.2%. The average increase is around 1.3%.

From historical experience, the Christmas rally is not just a simple seasonal statistical phenomenon; it more closely resembles a barometer of market risk appetite. If the market rises as expected from Christmas to New Year’s, it typically indicates that investors are still willing to allocate risk assets despite the lack of new macroeconomic stimulus. This confirms risk appetite at the end of the year and lays the emotional foundation for asset pricing in the new year. Conversely, if the opposite occurs, it often means that risk appetite has not recovered, leading to a scenario where the market is likely to face weakness or repeated fluctuations in January and beyond.

From a structural and seasonal perspective, on one hand, funds should flow back into the market after tax-loss harvesting completed in mid-December. On the other hand, the decrease in trading activity and volume during holiday periods means that a small amount of buying pressure can push the index upward while also lowering short-term volatility. Additionally, year-end bonus distributions and passive allocation funds from automatic deductions for pensions (like 401k) may also provide support for buying in the market.

Looking at Bitcoin data, the trading volume has finally decreased over the weekend, indicating that the actual trading volume from real users is indeed quite low. The high turnover rate during the week likely reflects changes from quantitative or high-frequency short-term investors, while the weekend figures should represent the actual changes among true holders. However, the Christmas rally will begin next week, and overall trading volume and turnover rate are expected to decline.

This Christmas rally is essentially a forecast for the first quarter of 2026. If, in the context of seasonal benefits, emotional vacuum, and gradually restored liquidity, the market still fails to form an effective upward trend, it may signify that the current high interest rate environment is suppressing the economy, overshadowing the emotional boost brought by the holiday factors.