$BTC Current price $90004.2. The price has deeply retraced from the historical high of $126,080 in October 2025, and the market is reassessing its core value and position in the global macroeconomic and cryptocurrency cycles.
Trading setup
Key buying range: $85000 - $92000
Target 1: $100000
Target 2: $116000
Target 3: $126000 (Challenge historical high)
Stop loss: below $80000
Core bullish logic
1. Solid institutional foundation and scarcity: Bitcoin spot ETFs have become a core pipeline for traditional capital entry. Continuous capital inflow indicates its widespread acceptance as an emerging asset class. Meanwhile, its absolute scarcity with a fixed cap of 21 million coins and the halving event occurring every four years structurally lays the foundation for long-term deflationary value.
2. Unique macroeconomic position: Against the backdrop of global government debt expansion and the growth of fiat currency supply, Bitcoin's narrative as 'digital gold' is increasingly solidified and viewed by some institutions as a strategic asset to counter currency devaluation.
3. Unparalleled network effects and dominance: Bitcoin occupies over 55% of the entire cryptocurrency market's market capitalization, with the broadest global exchange support, the largest liquidity, and the deepest user consensus, making its market dominance difficult to shake.
Core risk reminder
1. Extreme cyclical volatility and trend reversal risk: On-chain data indicates that the demand from institutions and large holders may have significantly slowed down, with spot ETF inflows turning volatile. Historically, similar patterns often herald the onset of bear market cycles. The price has fallen below key long-term moving averages, and the technical structure is damaged.
2. Macroeconomic sensitivity under high valuation: As a high-risk asset, its price is extremely sensitive to macro factors such as global liquidity tightening and interest rate policies. After experiencing a significant rise, the market's reaction to negative news may be amplified, leading to severe corrections.
3. Long-term challenges of regulation and market competition: Global regulatory policies still have uncertainties. While Bitcoin's position is solid, competition from other public chains like Ethereum in smart contracts and ecological innovation continues to vie for the total attention and funding of the market.
Market simulation
If the price receives effective support in the range of $85000 - $92000, accompanied by improvements in the macro environment or significant reinvestment of institutional funds, it is expected to stabilize and test the psychological level of $100000 upwards. If it can successfully reclaim important resistance like $116000, it may regain an upward trend. Conversely, if the demand weakness persists and the price falls below the $80000 support, it may further seek support at $70000 or even lower.