#اخبار_الكريبتو_العاجلة #عملات_رقمية #اقتصاد_رقمي #wct $BNB
Options markets indicate an equal probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026.
Long-term volatility is decreasing as institutional strategies such as option re-selling become more popular.
Despite his long-term optimism, Alex Thorne, head of research at Galaxy Digital, says predicting the future of Bitcoin over the next year is extremely difficult.
His statement coincides with the struggles of the digital currency markets to recover, as Bitcoin loses momentum and fails to break through resistance levels approaching a psychological barrier.
Options markets indicate a wide range of possibilities
According to an analysis conducted by Thorn and published on various social media platforms, derivatives trading data is the primary source of information, revealing a high level of uncertainty among institutional investors regarding Bitcoin's future until 2026.
The current option prices can be interpreted as an indicator that market participants favor highly divergent scenarios, with semi-annual targets ranging between $70,000 and $130,000.
By the end of the year, the gap between the highest and lowest price levels widens to $50,000 or $250,000, depending on the current market conditions.
These broad probability distributions suggest that professional traders are positioning their investment portfolios for significant market volatility rather than having a clear view of the market direction over the next twelve months. The options market's positioning reflects the hedging moves that investors typically make when they expect significant price changes but are uncertain about the market direction.
Thorn points to several factors that have contributed to this uncertainty, including global economic volatility, political changes, and the cryptocurrency market, which does not perform uniformly across different regions in the current trading environment.
Despite the short-term challenges, the Galaxy Research team sees new traits indicating the ongoing transformation of Bitcoin into a mature institutional asset class, a shift that occurs without a clear reversal in price movement.
One reason for the prolonged low long-term volatility rates is the emergence of sophisticated institutional strategies, such as options re-selling programs and yield-generation techniques, which gradually dampen the intensity of sharp price fluctuations.
