In the cryptocurrency market, we have seen too many tragedies of "unlocking leading to plummeting prices." The release schedule of a project's tokens often determines the fate of ordinary holders more than its technical white paper. It is like a "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the market; no matter how grand the project's narrative is, continuous selling pressure can crush it. Therefore, when we examine KITE, a project aimed at building the next generation of AI economic foundations, we must calmly assess another aspect of its economic model, aside from its dazzling technological vision: the rhythm of token releases. This is not a simple linear unlocking, but a sophisticated design deeply tied to the project's development stages, aimed at balancing multiple interests.
Core Mechanism: Understanding the Gap Between 'Fully Diluted Valuation' and 'Circulating Market Cap'
First, to clearly see the full picture of KITE's token economics, it is essential to distinguish two key concepts:
· Circulating Market Cap: The number of tokens that can actually be traded in the current market multiplied by the price.
· Fully Diluted Valuation: The total market cap when all tokens (including those not yet released) are assumed to be issued and circulating in the future.
The FDV of any project is usually much higher than its circulating market cap, and the difference represents the potential selling pressure in the future. The total supply of KITE tokens is relatively moderate, but its early circulation is not high, which means a considerable proportion of tokens will be gradually released to the team, investors, ecological funds, and community rewards over the coming years.
The Release Phase and Multidimensional Forecasting of Market Impact
The KITE release schedule is not uniformly distributed but divided into several key phases, each with different logical impacts on the market:
1. Launch and Early Circulation Phase (Early Mainnet Launch): In this phase, the circulation is minimal, and market sentiment and early ecological data (such as on-chain revenue, number of agency passport creations) are the main factors influencing the price. Due to relatively limited sell pressure, a good narrative and growth data can easily push the price up rapidly, but it may also lead to short-term valuation deviations from the fundamentals and significant volatility.
2. Core Contributor Unlock Phase (Usually Begins 6-12 Months Later): This is the first wave of major market tests. Tokens aimed at the team and early investors begin to unlock linearly. The price performance in this phase will directly test the market's absorption capacity and the long-term confidence of holders. If the infrastructure adoption rate of the KITE network and real income (such as fees) can grow rapidly in sync during the same period, proving its value creation capability, the market may view this as a healthy turnover of 'early builders taking profits' rather than pure sell pressure. Conversely, if ecological development stagnates, this phase may trigger a sustained downward trend.
3. Ecological Growth and Staking Release Phase (Medium to Long Term): Tokens aimed at community incentives, ecosystem development, and staking rewards begin to flood the market. This phase is the most critical because it is a race between 'positive cycles' and 'inflation dilution.'
· Positive Cycle: If the released tokens are effectively used to incentivize developers to build applications, attract users to use the network, and encourage holders to stake to maintain network security, then these tokens will be re-'locked' in the ecosystem, transforming into productivity rather than being directly sold. KITE's '100% fee buyback and burn' deflationary mechanism is particularly important in this phase, as it can directly hedge this new supply, forming a virtuous cycle of 'ecosystem growth → increased revenue → intensified buyback and burn → reduced net inflation.'
· Inflation Dilution Risk: If ecological development does not keep pace with the speed of token release, the newly added tokens will mainly translate into sell pressure, leading to sustained price pressure.
Key Variable: The decisive role of network fundamentals
Analyzing KITE's release schedule cannot be divorced from its network fundamentals. The following indicators will be key variables affecting the release impact:
· Protocol Revenue and Buyback Burn Volume: This is the most direct force to offset inflation. Can the daily fee income grow from tens of thousands of dollars in the test network to millions or even tens of millions of dollars?
· Staking Rate: How many tokens are voluntarily locked for security and governance rewards? A high staking rate will significantly reduce the circulating supply and buffer sell pressure.
· Total Locked Value and Application Diversity in the Ecosystem: Are there successful applications (such as Codatta) and a large number of AI agents generating real, sticky economic activity? This determines the utility demand and long-term value support of the token.
Conclusion: A Race Against Time
Therefore, the price of KITE will be a thrilling race between the token release schedule and the speed of network value creation in the coming years. The release schedule is a known and relatively fixed 'script.' The variable lies in whether the KITE team and community can deliver a 'value report card' that convinces the market before each unlocking window arrives.
For investors, this means that investing in KITE cannot be based on short-term speculation but must be based on a deep assessment of its technical implementation and ecological growth capabilities. You need to pay attention not only to the next unlocking date but also to the next milestone ecological application, the integration progress of partners, and the continuously rising on-chain revenue curve. Only when the speed of value creation continues to exceed the speed of token release will the 'Sword of Damocles' slowly descend, rather than come down heavily. The long-term value of KITE ultimately does not depend on the lines on the unlocking chart but on the total real value exchanges happening every second in the machine economic society it builds.
