Unbelievable—when BTC breaks below the 200-week moving average, there have been two prior instances at this level. In both cases, were they the last bottom-buying windows?
In March 2020, during the COVID crash, the price broke below the 200-week moving average—around $3,000. In the bottom of the 2022 bear market, it broke again—around $15,000. Now it’s the third time: the price is $59,052, with the red line pressing down.
The 200-week moving average is the thickest support line in BTC history. It represents the average cost range of holders over nearly four years. When the price falls to this level, it means that most holders who have held for more than two years begin to be in losses. That’s when the pressure from panic selling is at its highest—and it’s also when the chips are the cheapest.
When the market broke below this line the first two times, the sentiment was exactly the same as it is now: confidence is low, most people are afraid to buy, and the media is discussing the possibility of it going to zero. Then both times, this level marked the start of the biggest sustained rally.
There are only two historical samples, so the statistical significance is limited. The third time may not necessarily repeat the pattern; the 200-week moving average could also be broken through and then continue to fall. After the 2022 breakdown, it still took nearly half a year to stabilize for real.
The buyers now and the sellers now have reached completely opposite conclusions.
Do you think this 200-week moving average will hold, or will it fall to 38,000 as some people predict?$BTC #比特币6月下跌20.5%至58526美元
In March 2020, during the COVID crash, the price broke below the 200-week moving average—around $3,000. In the bottom of the 2022 bear market, it broke again—around $15,000. Now it’s the third time: the price is $59,052, with the red line pressing down.
The 200-week moving average is the thickest support line in BTC history. It represents the average cost range of holders over nearly four years. When the price falls to this level, it means that most holders who have held for more than two years begin to be in losses. That’s when the pressure from panic selling is at its highest—and it’s also when the chips are the cheapest.
When the market broke below this line the first two times, the sentiment was exactly the same as it is now: confidence is low, most people are afraid to buy, and the media is discussing the possibility of it going to zero. Then both times, this level marked the start of the biggest sustained rally.
There are only two historical samples, so the statistical significance is limited. The third time may not necessarily repeat the pattern; the 200-week moving average could also be broken through and then continue to fall. After the 2022 breakdown, it still took nearly half a year to stabilize for real.
The buyers now and the sellers now have reached completely opposite conclusions.
Do you think this 200-week moving average will hold, or will it fall to 38,000 as some people predict?$BTC #比特币6月下跌20.5%至58526美元