$BTC

To better understand where we are, let’s rewind a few weekly candles and break down what’s unfolded.

Starting with the large red weekly candle that dropped from 94K to 80K: the following week opened and swept the lows around 85K before pushing higher and testing 92K for the first time. After testing 92K, we can see sellers gradually stepping in before closing this weekly candle.

The next weekly candle then opened and briefly swept the prior week’s wick low with a slight deviation. Shortly after, price reversed upward again, sweeping the 92K liquidity once more, but sellers regained control, resulting in an indecisive close with a long wick.

The next weekly candle opened by holding above 90K. During FOMC, price once again swept the 92K region, this time pushing into 94K with deviation, before closing red, confirming continued seller presence. Our current weekly candle is also indecisive, but its behavior is important. Price pushed up toward 90K, then sold off aggressively down into the 84K region, filling liquidity left by the previous long wick.

What does this tell us? BTC is currently in a equilibrium from a price action perspective. We’ve swept the external range highs at 94K and have now come back down to rebalance and sweep the downside liquidity.

If 84K holds as our higher low after this rebalance, BTC is likely to rotate back toward 90K. A flip of 90K could open the door for another move toward 94K, provided we see acceptance above the yearly open at 93.6K. However, if 84K fails to hold and LTF S/R levels are not respected, downside continuation remains possible.

Key levels to watch: if 86.7K fails, 85.2K becomes the next area of interest. If that level doesn’t hold, a sweep of 83.8K is likely. Overall, we are still range bound, we’ve taken highs and we’ve taken lows, so the early part of the week, particularly Monday and Tuesday, will be crucial.

If a bearish narrative forms early in the week, look for a push higher into the latter half. Conversely, if we begin the week with bullish conditions, expect potential downside later.

Hopefully this helps.
$BTC