The Bank of Japan's 0.75% interest rate hike is not merely a simple adjustment of monetary policy, but rather a symbolic turning point signifying the end of its thirty-year deflationary cycle. The transmission effect on global risk assets far exceeds the superficial realm of interest rate changes.
From the perspective of real interest rates, Japan's current inflation rate remains above 3%. After this interest rate hike, the real interest rate is still deeply entrenched in negative territory, which means that market liquidity has not substantially tightened, and the profit motive of global cross-border arbitrage funds remains strong. It is noteworthy that the market has shown a significant reverse correction following the bad news: the liquidity contraction expectations corresponding to conventional interest rate hikes have been debunked. After panic selling pressure was released, optimistic funds quickly entered the market, leading to a simultaneous rise in the Nikkei index and U.S. stock risk sectors, clearly transmitting a recovery in risk appetite.
The deeper industrial and capital logic lies in the fact that behind this round of interest rate hikes in Japan, a positive cycle of wage-price spiral has begun to take shape. If this trend continues, it will drive a reconstruction of valuations in Japan's core sectors (banking, consumption, high-end manufacturing) while triggering a rise in expectations for yen appreciation and a reshaping of interest rate arbitrage trading rules, among other chain reactions.
For the cryptocurrency market, the marginal improvement in global liquidity expectations combined with the repair of risk appetite will directly benefit core assets such as BTC and ETH. Short-term market movements may be driven by emotions, but the core anchor point for medium- to long-term trends lies in the repricing of liquidity under the reassessment of global economic prospects—this is the key variable determining the cycle of cryptocurrency assets.
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